Department of International Public Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Postbox 4404 Nydalen, 0403 Oslo, Norway.
Medicina (Kaunas). 2012;48(12):640-6.
Associations between hot temperatures and both overall and cardio- and cerebrovascular mortality have been observed in many European, North American, and Southeastern Asian cities. However, the effects varied among the settings with limited evidence from the countries with arid and semiarid climates. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of air temperature on deaths from the selected diseases of the circulatory system in the city of Astana, Kazakhstan.
The daily counts of deaths from hypertensive diseases (ICD-10 codes, I10-I15), cerebrovascular diseases (ICD-10 codes, I60-I69), and ischemic heart disease (ICD-10 codes, I20-I25) during the warm seasons (April-September) of 2000-2001 and 2006-2010 were obtained from the City Registry Office. The associations between the maximum apparent temperature (average of lags 0-3) and mortality were assessed by a first-order autoregressive Poisson regression with the adjustment for barometric pressure (average of lags 0-3), wind speed, and effects of month, year, holidays, and weekends.
Altogether, there were 282, 1177, and 2994 deaths from hypertensive diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, and ischemic heart disease, respectively. The maximum effective temperature varied between -2.2°C and 44.5°C. An increase in temperature by 1°C was associated with a 1.9% (95% CI, 0.3-3.5) increase in the daily number of deaths from cerebrovascular diseases and with a 3.1% (95% CI, 0.2-6.1) decrease in the number of deaths from hypertensive diseases among women.
The results suggest a positive association between the maximum apparent temperature and the daily counts of deaths from cerebrovascular diseases and an inverse association between temperature and mortality from hypertensive diseases, but only among women.
在许多欧洲、北美和东南亚城市，高温与总死亡率以及心脑血管死亡率之间均存在关联。然而，由于来自干旱和半干旱气候国家的证据有限，不同环境下的影响存在差异。本研究旨在评估哈萨克斯坦阿斯塔纳市空气温度对选定循环系统疾病死亡的影响。
从城市登记处获得了 2000-2001 年和 2006-2010 年暖季（4 月至 9 月）高血压疾病（ICD-10 编码 I10-I15）、脑血管疾病（ICD-10 编码 I60-I69）和缺血性心脏病（ICD-10 编码 I20-I25）的每日死亡人数。通过一阶自回归泊松回归模型，调整大气压（滞后 0-3 天的平均值）、风速以及月份、年份、节假日和周末的影响，评估最大明显温度（滞后 0-3 天的平均值）与死亡率之间的关联。
高血压疾病、脑血管疾病和缺血性心脏病的总死亡人数分别为 282、1177 和 2994 人。最大有效温度范围在-2.2°C 至 44.5°C 之间。温度升高 1°C 与脑血管疾病的每日死亡人数增加 1.9%（95%置信区间，0.3-3.5）相关，与女性高血压疾病死亡人数减少 3.1%（95%置信区间，0.2-6.1）相关。
结果表明，最大明显温度与脑血管疾病的每日死亡人数呈正相关，与高血压疾病死亡率呈负相关，但仅在女性中存在这种相关性。
