Grjibovski Andrej M, Nurgaliyeva Nassikhat, Kosbayeva Aliya, Menne Bettina
Department of International Public Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway.
Int J Circumpolar Health. 2012;71. doi: 10.3402/ijch.v71i0.19769. Epub 2012 Dec 17.
Several European and North American studies have reported associations between cold temperatures and mortality from diseases of the circulatory system. However, the effects of cold vary between the settings warranting further research in other parts of the world.
To study associations between temperature and mortality from selected diseases of circulatory system in Astana, Kazakhstan--the second coldest capital in the world.
Daily counts of deaths from hypertensive diseases (ICD-10 codes: I10-I15), ischemic heart disease (I20-I25) and cerebrovascular diseases (I60-I69) among adults 18 years and older in Astana, Kazakhstan, during cold periods (October-March) in 2000-2001 and 2006-2010 were collected from the City Registry Office. Associations between mortality and mean apparent temperature and minimum apparent temperature (average for lags 0-15) were studied using Poisson regression controlling for barometric pressure (average for lags 0-3), wind speed and effects of month, year, weekends and holidays. Analyses were repeated using mean and minimum temperatures.
Overall, there were 320, 4468 and 2364 deaths from hypertensive disorders, ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular diseases, respectively. No significant associations between either mean, mean apparent, minimum or minimum apparent temperatures were found for any of the studied outcomes.
Contrary to the European findings, we did not find inverse associations between apparent temperatures and mortality from cardiovascular or cerebrovascular causes. Factors behind the lack of association may be similar to those in urban settings in Siberia, that is, centrally heated houses and a culture of wearing large volumes of winter clothes outdoors. Further research on the sensitivity of the population in Kazakhstan to climatic factors and its adaptive capacity is warranted.
多项欧洲和北美的研究报告了寒冷气温与循环系统疾病死亡率之间的关联。然而，寒冷的影响在不同环境中存在差异，这使得有必要在世界其他地区开展进一步研究。
研究哈萨克斯坦阿斯塔纳（世界第二寒冷的首都）气温与特定循环系统疾病死亡率之间的关联。
从阿斯塔纳市登记处收集了2000 - 2001年和2006 - 2010年寒冷时期（10月至次年3月）18岁及以上成年人中高血压疾病（国际疾病分类第十版编码：I10 - I15）、缺血性心脏病（I20 - I25）和脑血管疾病（I60 - I69）的每日死亡人数。使用泊松回归研究死亡率与平均表观温度和最低表观温度（滞后0 - 15天的平均值）之间的关联，并对气压（滞后0 - 3天的平均值）、风速以及月份、年份、周末和节假日的影响进行控制。使用平均温度和最低温度重复进行分析。
总体而言，高血压疾病、缺血性心脏病和脑血管疾病的死亡人数分别为320人、4468人和2364人。在所研究的任何结果中，均未发现平均温度、平均表观温度、最低温度或最低表观温度之间存在显著关联。
与欧洲的研究结果相反，我们未发现表观温度与心血管或脑血管病因导致的死亡率之间存在负相关。缺乏关联背后的因素可能与西伯利亚城市环境中的因素相似，即集中供暖房屋以及在户外穿着大量冬衣的文化习惯。有必要对哈萨克斯坦人群对气候因素的敏感性及其适应能力开展进一步研究。
