Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, 55102, U.S.A..
Conserv Biol. 2013 Oct;27(5):1087-95. doi: 10.1111/cobi.12074. Epub 2013 May 16.
Land and resource managers often use detection-nondetection surveys to monitor the populations of species that may be affected by factors such as habitat alteration, climate change, and biological invasions. Relative to mark-recapture studies, using detection-nondetection surveys is more cost-effective, and recent advances in statistical analyses allow the incorporation of detection probability, covariates, and multiple seasons. We examined the efficacy of using detection-nondetection data (relative to mark-recapture data) for monitoring population trends of a territorial species, the California Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis). We estimated and compared the finite annual rates of population change (λt ) and the resulting realized population change (Δt ) from both occupancy and mark-recapture data collected over 18 years (1993-2010). We used multiseason, robust-design occupancy models to estimate that territory occupancy declined during our study (Δt = 0.702, 95% CI 0.552-0.852) due to increasing territory extinction rates (ε(1993) = 0.019 [SE 0.012]; ε(2009) = 0.134 [SE 0.043]) and decreasing colonization rates (γ(1993) = 0.323 [SE 0.124]; γ(2009) = 0.242 [SE 0.058]). We used Pradel's temporal-symmetry model for mark-recapture data to estimate that the population trajectory closely matched the trends in territory occupancy (Δt = 0.725, 95% CI 0.445-1.004). Individual survival was constant during our study (φ(1993) = 0.816 [SE 0.020]; φ(2009) = 0.815 [SE 0.019]), whereas recruitment declined slightly (f(1993) = 0.195 [SE 0.032]; f(2009) = 0.160 [SE 0.023]). Thus, we concluded that detection-nondetection data can provide reliable inferences on population trends, especially when funds preclude more intensive mark-recapture studies.
土地和资源管理者通常使用检测-未检测调查来监测可能受到栖息地改变、气候变化和生物入侵等因素影响的物种的种群。与标记-重捕研究相比，使用检测-未检测调查更具成本效益，并且最近在统计分析方面的进展允许纳入检测概率、协变量和多个季节。我们研究了使用检测-未检测数据（相对于标记-重捕数据）监测加利福尼亚斑点猫头鹰（Strix occidentalis occidentalis）等有领地物种的种群趋势的效果。我们估计并比较了从 18 年（1993-2010 年）收集的占有率和标记-重捕数据得出的有限年种群变化率（λt）和实际种群变化（Δt）。我们使用多季节、稳健设计的占有模型来估计，由于领地灭绝率的增加（ε（1993）= 0.019[SE 0.012]；ε（2009）= 0.134[SE 0.043]）和定居率的降低（γ（1993）= 0.323[SE 0.124]；γ（2009）= 0.242[SE 0.058]），我们的研究期间领地占有下降。我们使用 Pradel 的时间对称模型对标记-重捕数据进行了估计，该模型表明种群轨迹与领地占有率的趋势非常吻合（Δt = 0.725，95%CI 0.445-1.004）。在我们的研究期间，个体存活率保持不变（φ（1993）= 0.816[SE 0.020]；φ（2009）= 0.815[SE 0.019]），而招募略有下降（f（1993）= 0.195[SE 0.032]；f（2009）= 0.160[SE 0.023]）。因此，我们得出结论，检测-未检测数据可以提供有关种群趋势的可靠推断，特别是在资金不允许更密集的标记-重捕研究的情况下。
