Department of Mathematical Sciences, The University of Montana, Mathematics Building, Missoula, MT, 59812, USA.
Environ Manage. 2013 Sep;52(3):683-98. doi: 10.1007/s00267-013-0080-2. Epub 2013 May 29.
The National Park Service (NPS) currently manages a large and diverse system of park units nationwide which received an estimated 279 million recreational visits in 2011. This article uses park visitor data collected by the NPS Visitor Services Project to estimate a consistent set of count data travel cost models of park visitor willingness to pay (WTP). Models were estimated using 58 different park unit survey datasets. WTP estimates for these 58 park surveys were used within a meta-regression analysis model to predict average and total WTP for NPS recreational visitation system-wide. Estimated WTP per NPS visit in 2011 averaged $102 system-wide, and ranged across park units from $67 to $288. Total 2011 visitor WTP for the NPS system is estimated at $28.5 billion with a 95% confidence interval of $19.7-$43.1 billion. The estimation of a meta-regression model using consistently collected data and identical specification of visitor WTP models greatly reduces problems common to meta-regression models, including sample selection bias, primary data heterogeneity, and heteroskedasticity, as well as some aspects of panel effects. The article provides the first estimate of total annual NPS visitor WTP within the literature directly based on NPS visitor survey data.
美国国家公园管理局（NPS）目前管理着一个庞大而多样化的国家公园系统，该系统在 2011 年接待了约 2.79 亿人次的休闲游客。本文利用 NPS 游客服务项目收集的游客数据，估算了一套一致的、基于计数数据的公园游客支付意愿（WTP）旅行成本模型。模型是利用 58 个不同的公园单位调查数据集估算的。利用这 58 个公园调查的 WTP 估计值，在元回归分析模型中进行了预测，以预测 NPS 休闲旅游系统范围内的平均和总 WTP。2011 年 NPS 每次访问的估计 WTP 平均为 102 美元，在不同的公园单位之间从 67 美元到 288 美元不等。NPS 系统 2011 年的游客总 WTP 估计为 285 亿美元，95%置信区间为 197 亿至 431 亿美元。使用一致收集的数据和相同的游客 WTP 模型规范来估算元回归模型，极大地减少了元回归模型中常见的问题，包括样本选择偏差、主要数据异质性、异方差性，以及面板效应的某些方面。本文首次根据 NPS 游客调查数据，直接估算了 NPS 游客每年的总 WTP。
