Hashmi Sahar
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Am J Disaster Med. 2013 Winter;8(1):57-64. doi: 10.5055/ajdm.2013.0111.
This article traces the spread and route of the H1N1 pandemic in 2009 from its possible origin in La Gloria to Mexico City. A lack of health control measures or nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in La Gloria accounts for the unprecedented high basic reproductive number (R0) in that town and a higher incidence of H1N1 flu in Mexico City. We analyzed data collected from Mexican news articles, the Healthmaps dataset, the Google search engine, and telephone interviews with Mexican community physicians and residents. Our article uses a simple Susceptible Infected and Recovered model based on the data collected, to show the relationship between the disease curve and the implementation of NPI use. As a result of this study, we conclude that, with strict government measures to control the disease over an extended period of time, it is possible that many hundreds or even thousands of lives might be saved in the future.
本文追溯了2009年甲型H1N1流感大流行从其可能的起源地拉格洛里亚到墨西哥城的传播过程和路径。拉格洛里亚缺乏卫生控制措施或非药物干预（NPIs）导致该镇出现了前所未有的高基本繁殖数（R0），以及墨西哥城甲型H1N1流感的更高发病率。我们分析了从墨西哥新闻文章、健康地图数据集、谷歌搜索引擎收集的数据，以及对墨西哥社区医生和居民的电话访谈。我们的文章基于收集到的数据使用了一个简单的易感-感染-康复模型，以展示疾病曲线与非药物干预使用的实施之间的关系。这项研究的结果是，我们得出结论，通过政府长期采取严格措施控制疾病，未来有可能挽救数百甚至数千人的生命。
