Improving the sampling strategy of the Joint Danube Survey 3 (2013) by means of multivariate statistical techniques applied on selected physico-chemical and biological data.

The concept of basin-wide Joint Danube Survey (JDS) was launched by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) as a tool for investigative monitoring under the Water Framework Directive (WFD), with a frequency of 6 years. The first JDS was carried out in 2001 and its success in providing key information for characterisation of the Danube River Basin District as required by WFD lead to the organisation of the second JDS in 2007, which was the world's biggest river research expedition in that year. The present paper presents an approach for improving the survey strategy for the next planned survey JDS3 (2013) by means of several multivariate statistical techniques. In order to design the optimum structure in terms of parameters and sampling sites, principal component analysis (PCA), factor analysis (FA) and cluster analysis were applied on JDS2 data for 13 selected physico-chemical and one biological element measured in 78 sampling sites located on the main course of the Danube. Results from PCA/FA showed that most of the dataset variance (above 75%) was explained by five varifactors loaded with 8 out of 14 variables: physical (transparency and total suspended solids), relevant nutrients (N-nitrates and P-orthophosphates), feedback effects of primary production (pH, alkalinity and dissolved oxygen) and algal biomass. Taking into account the representation of the factor scores given by FA versus sampling sites and the major groups generated by the clustering procedure, the spatial network of the next survey could be carefully tailored, leading to a decreasing of sampling sites by more than 30%. The approach of target oriented sampling strategy based on the selected multivariate statistics can provide a strong reduction in dimensionality of the original data and corresponding costs as well, without any loss of information.