Spatial modelling of Bacillus anthracis ecological niche in Zimbabwe.

Anthrax continues to cause significant mortalities in livestock, wildlife and humans worldwide. In Zimbabwe, anthrax outbreaks have been reported almost annually over the past four decades. In this study we tested whether anthrax outbreak data and a set of environmental variables can be used to predict the ecological niche for Bacillus anthracis using maximum entropy modelling for species geographical distribution (Maxent). Confirmed geo-referenced anthrax outbreaks data for the period 1995-2010 were used as presence locations and a set of environmental parameters; precipitation, temperature, vegetation biomass, soil type and terrain as predictor variables. Results showed that the environmental variables can adequately predict the ecological niche of B. anthracis (AUC for test data=0.717, p<0.001), with soil type as the most important predictor followed by variance of vegetation biomass and maximum temperature. These results imply that the model we tested may be used by animal health authorities in devising better control strategies for anthrax.