Okosun Kazeem Oare, Makinde Oluwole Daniel
Department of Mathematics, Vaal University of Technology, Andries Potgieter Blvrd, Private Bag X021, Vanderbijlpark, 1900 South Africa.
J Biol Phys. 2012 Jun;38(3):507-30. doi: 10.1007/s10867-012-9269-5. Epub 2012 Jun 7.
In this paper, a deterministic malaria transmission model in the presence of a drug-resistant strain is investigated. The model is studied using stability theory of differential equations, optimal control, and computer simulation. The threshold condition for disease-free equilibrium is found to be locally asymptotically stable and can only be achieved in the absence of a drug-resistant strain in the population. The existence of multiple endemic equilibria is also established. Both the Sensitivity Index (SI) of the model parameters and the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) for all possible combinations of the disease-control measures are determined. Our results revealed among others that the most cost-effective strategy for drug-resistant malaria control is the combination of the provision of basic amenities (such as access to clean water, electricity, good roads, health care, and education) and treatment of infective individuals. Therefore, more efforts from policy-makers on the provisions of basic amenities and treatment of infectives would go a long way to combat the malaria epidemic.
本文研究了存在耐药菌株情况下的确定性疟疾传播模型。利用微分方程稳定性理论、最优控制和计算机模拟对该模型进行了研究。发现无病平衡的阈值条件是局部渐近稳定的,且只有在人群中不存在耐药菌株时才能实现。还建立了多个地方病平衡的存在性。确定了模型参数的灵敏度指数(SI)以及疾病控制措施所有可能组合的增量成本效益比(ICER)。我们的结果尤其表明,控制耐药疟疾最具成本效益的策略是提供基本便利设施(如获得清洁水、电力、良好道路、医疗保健和教育)与治疗感染者相结合。因此,政策制定者在提供基本便利设施和治疗感染者方面做出更多努力,将对抗击疟疾疫情大有帮助。