The University of Queensland, School of Population Health, Herston, Australia.
Prev Med. 2013 Sep;57(3):232-7. doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2013.05.016. Epub 2013 Jun 1.
Smoking prevalence among Vietnamese men is among the highest in the world. Our aim was to provide estimates of tobacco attributable mortality to support tobacco control policies.
We used the Peto-Lopez method using lung cancer mortality to derive a Smoking Impact Ratio (SIR) as a marker of cumulative exposure to smoking. SIRs were applied to relative risks from the Cancer Prevention Study, Phase II. Prevalence-based and hybrid methods, using the SIR for cancers and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and smoking prevalence for all other outcomes, were used in sensitivity analyses.
When lung cancer was used to measure cumulative smoking exposure, 28% (95% uncertainty interval 24-31%) of all adult male deaths (>35 years) in Vietnam in 2008 were attributable to smoking. Lower estimates resulted from prevalence-based methods [24% (95% uncertainty interval 21-26%)] with the hybrid method yielding intermediate estimates [26% (95% uncertainty interval 23-28%)].
Despite uncertainty in these estimates of attributable mortality, tobacco smoking is already a major risk factor for death in Vietnamese men. Given the high current prevalence of smoking, this has important implications not only for preventing the uptake of tobacco but also for immediate action to adopt and enforce stronger tobacco control measures.
越南男性的吸烟率位居世界前列。我们的目的是提供归因于烟草的死亡人数估计值，以支持烟草控制政策。
我们使用 Peto-Lopez 方法，利用肺癌死亡率得出吸烟影响比（SIR）作为吸烟累积暴露的指标。SIR 应用于癌症预防研究第二期的相对风险。使用 SIR 评估癌症和慢性阻塞性肺疾病，以及所有其他结局的吸烟流行率的基于流行率和混合方法在敏感性分析中进行了应用。
当使用肺癌来衡量累积吸烟暴露时，2008 年越南所有成年男性（>35 岁）死亡人数中有 28%（95%不确定区间 24-31%）归因于吸烟。基于流行率的方法得出的估计值较低[24%（95%不确定区间 21-26%）]，而混合方法则得出中间估计值[26%（95%不确定区间 23-28%）]。
尽管这些归因于死亡的估计值存在不确定性，但烟草吸烟已经是越南男性死亡的主要危险因素。鉴于目前吸烟的高流行率，这不仅对预防烟草的使用具有重要意义，而且对立即采取行动通过和实施更严格的烟草控制措施也具有重要意义。
