Cheng Yue-Jia, Tang Fen-Yang, Bao Chang-Jun, Zhu Ye-Fei, Liang Qi, Hu Jian-Li, Liu Wen-Dong, Wu Ying, Reilly Kathleen H, Shen Tong-Qian, Zhao Yang, Peng Zhi-Hang, Yu Rong-Bin, Wang Hua, Shen Hong-Bing, Chen Feng
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, People's Republic of China.
Geospat Health. 2013 May;7(2):279-88. doi: 10.4081/gh.2013.86.
An analysis of the geographical distribution of typhoid incidence rates, based on various statistical approaches such as trend surface, spatial autocorrelation, spatial correlation and spatial regression, was carried out at the county level in Jiangsu province, People's Republic of China. Temperature, moisture content, proximity to water bodies and the normalized difference vegetation index in the autumn were the four underlying factors found to contribute the most to the development of the epidemic. Typhoid infection was most severe in the south-eastern region of Jiangsu and a significant hotspot with high positive autocorrelation was detected in Taicang county in the south-east of the province. To improve the typhoid situation, intervention efforts should be concentrated in the south-eastern region of the province, targeting the hotspot and include reduction of lake pollution.
基于趋势面分析、空间自相关分析、空间相关性分析和空间回归分析等多种统计方法,对中华人民共和国江苏省县级伤寒发病率的地理分布进行了分析。研究发现,秋季的气温、湿度、与水体的距离以及归一化植被指数是导致疫情发生的四个最主要因素。江苏省东南部的伤寒感染最为严重,在该省东南部的太仓县检测到一个具有高度正自相关性的显著热点地区。为改善伤寒疫情状况,应将干预措施集中在该省东南部地区,以该热点地区为目标,包括减少湖泊污染。