Norwegian Institute of Public Health, and Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.
Scand J Public Health. 2013 Aug;41(6):644-51. doi: 10.1177/1403494813491032. Epub 2013 Jun 11.
Use time trends in cause-specific middle-age death risk to study differences in mortality patterns among the Nordic countries.
Middle-age (40-69 years) death risk and its decomposition into cause-specific death risks were computed.
In 1952, middle-age death risk was highest in Finland and lowest in Norway. For men, the death risk at the age of 40-69 years stagnated or increased during the first 20-30 years after 1950. From 1970-1980 until present time, there has been a strong decrease in male middle-age death risk. For women, there was a strong decreasing trend during the whole study period with the exception of Denmark. For 20 years from the late 1970s, the death risk at 40-69 years increased for Danish women followed by a sharp decrease from the mid-1990s. The main driver of the initial upward trend in men and downward trends in both men and women were changing death risks from circulatory disease. The upward trend in Danish women was driven by increased death risk from non-circulatory diseases that also gave an untoward trend in Danish men. Middle-age death risks converged after 1990 for Danish and Finnish men at a higher level than in the three other countries. In 2010, middle-age death risk in Finnish women, who had the highest level in 1952, converged with Norway, Sweden and Iceland at a risk much below Danish women.
Trends in risk and causes of middle-age death from 1951-2010 showed important variation among the five Nordic countries and between men and women.
利用特定年龄段中年死亡风险的时间趋势来研究北欧国家死亡率模式的差异。
计算了中年（40-69 岁）死亡风险及其对特定原因死亡风险的分解。
1952 年，芬兰的中年死亡风险最高，挪威的最低。对于男性，40-69 岁的死亡风险在 1950 年后的头 20-30 年停滞不前或增加。从 1970-1980 年到现在，男性中年死亡风险大幅下降。对于女性，除了丹麦，整个研究期间都呈明显下降趋势。从 20 世纪 70 年代末的 20 年开始，丹麦女性的 40-69 岁死亡风险增加，随后从 90 年代中期开始急剧下降。男性和男女死亡率下降的主要驱动因素是循环系统疾病死亡风险的变化。丹麦女性死亡率上升的原因是循环系统以外疾病的死亡风险增加，这也导致丹麦男性死亡率出现不利趋势。丹麦和芬兰男性的中年死亡风险在 1990 年后趋同，水平高于其他三个国家。2010 年，芬兰女性的中年死亡风险达到 1952 年的最高水平，与挪威、瑞典和冰岛趋同，风险远低于丹麦女性。
1951-2010 年中年死亡风险和原因的趋势表明，北欧五国之间以及男性和女性之间存在重要差异。
