Hélie Sonia, Laurier Catherine, Pineau-Villeneuve Catherine, Royer Marie-Noële
Centre de Recherche du Centre Jeunesse De Montréal - Institut Universitaire, 1001 De Maisonneuve Blvd. East, Montréal, Québec, Canada H2L 4R5.
École de Criminologie, Université de Montréal, C.P. 6128, Succ. Centre-ville, Montréal, Québec, Canada H3C 3J7.
Child Abuse Negl. 2013 Dec;37(12):1132-41. doi: 10.1016/j.chiabu.2013.05.001. Epub 2013 Jun 12.
The objective of this study is to estimate the risk of a first recurrence over a five-year period following initial child protective services (CPS) intervention and identify the characteristics associated with the risk of recurrence for three different age groups. Recurrence is defined as the first substantiated report within the observation period after initial services have ended. The study involved a cohort of 25,897 Quebec children who received postinvestigation services for the first time and whose cases were closed between 2005 and 2009. Survival analysis was used to estimate the five-year risk of recurrence and Cox regression to model the risk of recurrence for three age groups. The covariates introduced into the regression analyses were characteristics of the child and initial services. The risk of recurrence in the five years following termination of initial CPS services was 36% for the entire cohort and varied depending on the child's age at the time of case closure. Children aged 6-11 when their cases were closed had the highest risk of recurrence. Although Aboriginal descent and prior CPS investigations have a consistent effect on the risk of recurrence in all three age groups, the effects of other covariates, such as out-of-home placement and court involvement, vary or are even reversed, depending on the child's age. These findings highlight the need to adopt a differential approach that takes into account the child's age, both in the provision of protective services and in research involving the population receiving such services.
本研究的目的是估计首次儿童保护服务（CPS）干预后的五年内首次复发的风险，并确定三个不同年龄组复发风险相关的特征。复发定义为初始服务结束后的观察期内首次得到证实的报告。该研究涉及25897名魁北克儿童队列，他们首次接受调查后服务，且其案件于2005年至2009年结案。生存分析用于估计五年复发风险，Cox回归用于对三个年龄组的复发风险进行建模。纳入回归分析的协变量是儿童和初始服务的特征。初始CPS服务终止后的五年内，整个队列的复发风险为36%，且因结案时儿童的年龄而异。结案时年龄在6至11岁的儿童复发风险最高。尽管原住民血统和之前的CPS调查对所有三个年龄组的复发风险都有一致影响，但其他协变量的影响，如家庭外安置和法院介入，会因儿童年龄而异，甚至相反。这些发现凸显了在提供保护服务以及涉及接受此类服务人群的研究中，都需要采用考虑儿童年龄的差异化方法。
