Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia.
Accid Anal Prev. 2013 Oct;59:296-300. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2013.06.020. Epub 2013 Jun 21.
Precise estimation of the relative risk of motorcyclists being involved in a fatal accident compared to car drivers is difficult. Simple estimates based on the proportions of licenced drivers or riders that are killed in a fatal accident are biased as they do not take into account the exposure to risk. However, exposure is difficult to quantify. Here we adapt the ideas behind the well known induced exposure methods and use available summary data on speeding detections and fatalities for motorcycle riders and car drivers to estimate the relative risk of a fatality for motorcyclists compared to car drivers under mild assumptions. The method is applied to data on motorcycle riders and car drivers in Victoria, Australia in 2010 and a small simulation study is conducted.
与汽车司机相比，精确估计摩托车手发生致命事故的相对风险是困难的。基于在致命事故中死亡的许可司机或骑手的比例进行简单估计存在偏差，因为它们没有考虑到风险暴露。然而，暴露程度很难量化。在这里，我们采用了广为人知的诱发暴露方法背后的思路，并利用有关摩托车手和汽车司机超速检测和致命事故的可用汇总数据，根据温和的假设来估计摩托车手与汽车司机相比发生致命事故的相对风险。该方法应用于 2010 年澳大利亚维多利亚州的摩托车手和汽车司机的数据，并进行了小规模的模拟研究。
