Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA.
Am Nat. 2013 Aug;182(2):271-82. doi: 10.1086/671059. Epub 2013 Jun 27.
Temporally variable conditions introduce time dependence into vital rates, and predicting the effect of this variability on population dynamics and persistence is critical for the effective management of natural populations subject to fluctuating environments. In many marine species, dispersal during the larval stage establishes links among populations and is largely determined by temporally variable fluid dynamic processes. However, the consequences of time-dependent dispersal for population persistence are largely unexplored, and so we present a model of stochastically driven dispersal to study population persistence in a temporally variable, patchy habitat. We illustrate how patterns of temporal autocorrelation, expressed as variance in stochastic population connectivity, can have counterintuitive consequences for predictions, where switching between two sets of dynamics, each of which leads to extinction, can promote metapopulation persistence. We contend that accounting for stochastic dispersal can have great relevance for understanding population persistence, in marine populations in particular and in organisms with some degree of passive dispersal in general.
时变条件将时间依赖性引入生命表中，预测这种可变性对受波动环境影响的自然种群动态和持久性的影响对于有效管理自然种群至关重要。在许多海洋物种中，幼虫阶段的扩散在种群之间建立了联系，并且在很大程度上取决于随时间变化的流体动力学过程。然而，时变扩散对种群持久性的后果在很大程度上尚未得到探索，因此我们提出了一个随机驱动扩散模型，以研究时变、斑块状栖息地中的种群持久性。我们说明了时间自相关模式（表现为随机种群连通性的方差）如何对预测产生反直觉的后果，在这两种模式之间切换，每种模式都会导致灭绝，从而可以促进复合种群的持久性。我们认为，考虑随机扩散对于理解种群持久性具有重要意义，特别是对于海洋种群，以及对于具有一定被动扩散程度的生物体而言。
