Shakhanina I L, Kucherovskaia T V, Chernova T P
Zh Mikrobiol Epidemiol Immunobiol. 1990 Apr(4):49-54.
To solve various problems connected with epidemiological analysis concerning evaluation of the level, direction and intensity of the time course of the epidemic process and character of the cyclic component, the indications and limitations to the use of the following statistical methods have been worked out: equalizing by the method of the least squares on a straight line, a parabola, an exponential or power curve; calculation of the average annual rate of increase; leveling of dynamic series by the methods of internal prolongation, sliding and suspended sliding mean values; calculation of deviations from the theoretical tendency line; autocorrection. 11 computer programs have been compiled on the basis of the algorithms of the above methods, complete with the service menu, for the program complex "Epidanalysis" which permits an epidemiologist to proceed from the problem via indications and limitations to the adequate statistical method and the corresponding software. The programs are intended for different types of computers (EC-1840, Robotron 1715, IBM PC XT).
为解决与流行病学分析相关的各种问题,这些问题涉及对流行过程时间进程的水平、方向和强度以及周期性成分特征的评估,已确定了以下统计方法的适用指征和局限性:用直线、抛物线、指数曲线或幂曲线的最小二乘法进行拟合;计算年平均增长率;用内插法、滑动平均法和悬置滑动平均值法对动态序列进行平滑处理;计算与理论趋势线的偏差;自校正。基于上述方法的算法,已为“Epidanalysis”程序组合编制了11个计算机程序,并配有服务菜单,这使流行病学家能够从问题出发,根据适用指征和局限性,选择合适的统计方法及相应软件。这些程序适用于不同类型的计算机(EC - 1840、Robotron 1715、IBM PC XT)。