Alanís-Méndez José Luis, Soto Víctor, Limón-Salvador Francisco
Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas y Agropecuarias, Universidad Veracruzana, Región Poza Rica-Tuxpan, Tuxpan 92870, Veracruz, Mexico.
Centro de Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa 91090, Veracruz, Mexico.
Plants (Basel). 2024 Mar 14;13(6):839. doi: 10.3390/plants13060839.
The impact of climate change on the distribution of native species in the Neotropics remains uncertain for most species. is an endemic epiphytic orchid in Mexico, categorized as threatened. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of climate change on the natural distribution of and the capacity of protected areas (PAs) to safeguard optimal environmental conditions for the species in the future. Historical records were obtained from herbaria collections and through field surveys. We utilized climate variables from WorldClim for the baseline scenario and for the 2050 period, using the general circulation models CCSM4 and CNRM-CM5 (RCP 4.5). Three sets of climate data were created for the distribution models, and multiple models were evaluated using the kuenm package. We found that the species is restricted to the eastern region of the country. The projections of future scenarios predict not only a substantial reduction in habitat but also an increase in habitat fragmentation. Ten PAs were found within the current distribution area of the species; in the future, the species could lose between 36% and 48% of its available habitat within these PAs. The results allowed for the identification of locations where climate change will have the most severe effects, and proposals for long-term conservation are addressed.
气候变化对新热带地区本土物种分布的影响，对于大多数物种来说仍不确定。[物种名称]是墨西哥特有的附生兰花，被列为受威胁物种。本研究的目的是评估气候变化对[物种名称]自然分布的影响，以及保护区在未来为该物种保障最佳环境条件的能力。历史记录来自植物标本馆收藏和实地调查。我们使用来自WorldClim的气候变量作为基线情景和2050年情景，采用通用环流模型CCSM4和CNRM-CM5（RCP 4.5）。为分布模型创建了三组气候数据，并使用kuenm软件包评估了多个模型。我们发现该物种仅限于该国东部地区。未来情景预测不仅栖息地将大幅减少，而且栖息地破碎化也会加剧。在该物种目前的分布区域内发现了10个保护区；未来，该物种在这些保护区内可能会失去36%至48%的可用栖息地。研究结果有助于确定气候变化影响最严重的地点，并提出了长期保护建议。
