Department of Electrical and Information Engineering, University of Cassino and Southern Lazio, Via di Biasio 43, I-03043 Cassino, Italy.
Math Biosci Eng. 2013 Aug;10(4):1135-57. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2013.10.1135.
We consider the case of measles in South Africa to show that an high vaccination coverage may be not enough - alone - to ensure measles eradication. The occurrence of certain epidemic episodes may in fact be encouraged by delays in the treatments or by not adequately fast clinical case management, which may be related to the backward bifurcation phenomenon as well as to an intriguing spiking dynamics which appears in the system for specific ranges of parameter values.
我们以南非的麻疹案例为例，表明高疫苗接种率可能不足以——单独地——确保麻疹的根除。某些疫情的发生实际上可能是由于治疗延迟或临床病例管理不够迅速而助长的，这可能与滞后分歧现象以及在特定参数值范围内出现的引人入胜的尖峰动力学有关。
