Projection of the dental workforce from 2011 to 2020, based on the actual workload of 6762 dentists in 2010 in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Planning of the dental workforce, especially the number of dentists, requires the data of actual dental workloads. This study attempts to make projections of the dental workforce from 2011 to 2020, based on a survey of the actual workload of 6762 dentists in 2010.

METHODS

In 2010, a database of 11,449 current dentists was retrieved from the file of Department of Health, Executive Yuan, Taipei, Taiwan. Questionnaires with the information of each dentist and 10 questions regarding the actual workload were sent to each dentist with a return envelope. The actual workload of the dentists who returned the questionnaires was analyzed. A projection of dental workforce from 2011 to 2020 was calculated, based on the actual workload.

RESULTS

An analysis of the actual dental workload was conducted on 6762 (59.1%) returned questionnaires. The dentist-to-population ratio (defined as the number of dentists per 10,000 people) was 5.0 in 2010. The supply of 400 dentists per year remained constant from 2006 to 2010, and is expected to be sustained for the next 10 years. Because the population of Taiwan will begin to decrease within the next 10 years, we estimate that the dentist-to-population ratio will increase to 6.0 by the year 2020 or earlier. After adjusting for working hours, working days, and gender differences, surplus dentists will number approximately 1069 in 2020.

CONCLUSION

An oversupply of dentists and a decrease in population will result in a surplus of dentists. To make better projections of the dental workforce, surplus dentists can be arranged to care for the aged, disabled people, and underserved people.