Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, CO 80521, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2013 Aug 20;110(34):13961-4. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1307243110. Epub 2013 Aug 5.
A widely held concern is that the pace of infectious disease emergence has been increasing. We have analyzed the rate of discovery of pathogenic viruses, the preeminent source of newly discovered causes of human disease, from 1897 through 2010. The rate was highest during 1950-1969, after which it moderated. This general picture masks two distinct trends: for arthropod-borne viruses, which comprised 39% of pathogenic viruses, the discovery rate peaked at three per year during 1960-1969, but subsequently fell nearly to zero by 1980; however, the rate of discovery of nonarboviruses remained stable at about two per year from 1950 through 2010. The period of highest arbovirus discovery coincided with a comprehensive program supported by The Rockefeller Foundation of isolating viruses from humans, animals, and arthropod vectors at field stations in Latin America, Africa, and India. The productivity of this strategy illustrates the importance of location, approach, long-term commitment, and sponsorship in the discovery of emerging pathogens.
人们普遍担心传染病的出现速度一直在加快。我们分析了从 1897 年到 2010 年发现致病性病毒的速度，这些病毒是人类新发疾病的主要病原体。1950 年至 1969 年期间的发现速度最高，此后逐渐放缓。这一总体情况掩盖了两个明显的趋势：对于节肢动物传播的病毒，占致病性病毒的 39%，在 1960 年至 1969 年期间，每年的发现率达到了 3 次的峰值，但随后到 1980 年几乎降至零；然而，非虫媒病毒的发现率从 1950 年到 2010 年保持在每年约 2 次的稳定水平。虫媒病毒发现率最高的时期恰逢由洛克菲勒基金会支持的一个综合性计划，该计划在拉丁美洲、非洲和印度的野外站从人类、动物和节肢动物媒介中分离病毒。这一策略的生产力说明了在发现新出现的病原体时，地理位置、方法、长期承诺和赞助的重要性。
