Department of Preventive and Family Medicine, Division of Physician Assistant Education, University of Utah, 375 Chipeta Way, Ste A, Salt Lake City, UT 84108, USA.
Am J Manag Care. 2013 Jul 1;19(7):e256-62.
To determine predictors of physician assistants (PAs) to retire or to permanently leave clinical practice. The intent was to create a measure of retention and attrition for purposes of forecasting PA supply.
All PAs 55 years or older who were nationally certified in 2011 were surveyed.
Statistical analysis included descriptive measures utilizing means, standard deviations, range, and proportions for all survey questions. Univariable analysis using χ² test for the categorical variables determined gender differences in participants' intent to retire. A studentized t test analysis for continuous variables was used to compare differences across genders. The estimated time interval until retirement was calculated using reported values from participants and then subtracting their projected retirement age from current age. The same calculation was used for estimating PA career length from date of graduation to retirement. For all analyses, a P value < .05 was considered statistically significant.
A total of 12,005 were eligible and surveyed online; 4767 responded (38%). The mean age was 60 years and the years in clinical practice was 25. When asked to predict a retirement date or age, the mean duration of working beyond age 55 years was 12 years (range 5 to 21). Most respondents reported being confident they were on track to retire with an adequate income. The significant differences that emerged were that men were more confident than women in preparing to retire, having enough money for medical expenses, and being able to live comfortably in retirement. Men more than women stated that, if forced to retire, they were more confident in the preparation to do so.
PAs 55 years and older report they are likely to delay retirement from practice until age 67 years, on average. Women were less confident than men in retirement preparation. This age prediction expands career projections and refines forecasting models for the profession. Correlations based on expectation-action chain of events should be developed by periodically measuring how often intent and reality coalesce.
确定医生助理（PA）退休或永久离开临床实践的预测因素。目的是创建一种保留和流失的衡量标准，以便预测 PA 的供应。
对 2011 年全国认证的所有 55 岁及以上的 PA 进行了调查。
统计分析包括利用均值、标准差、范围和比例对所有调查问题进行描述性测量。使用卡方检验对分类变量进行单变量分析，以确定参与者退休意向的性别差异。使用学生 t 检验分析连续变量，以比较性别之间的差异。使用参与者报告的值计算退休前的估计时间间隔，然后从当前年龄中减去预计退休年龄。使用从毕业到退休的日期计算 PA 职业生涯的长度。所有分析中，P 值<.05 被认为具有统计学意义。
共有 12005 人符合条件并在线接受调查；4767 人回复（38%）。平均年龄为 60 岁，临床实践年限为 25 年。当被问及预测退休日期或年龄时，超过 55 岁工作的平均年限为 12 年（范围为 5 至 21 年）。大多数受访者报告说，他们有信心在退休时有足够的收入。出现的显著差异是，男性比女性更有信心准备退休，有足够的钱支付医疗费用，并能够在退休后舒适地生活。男性比女性更表示，如果被迫退休，他们更有信心做好准备。
55 岁及以上的 PA 报告称，他们平均可能会延迟到 67 岁退休，继续留在临床实践中。女性在退休准备方面比男性缺乏信心。这一年龄预测扩大了职业规划，并完善了该职业的预测模型。应该通过定期衡量意图和现实的一致性，基于期望-行动链来开发相关性。
