Department of Biology, University of Vermont, 321 Marsh Life Science Building, Burlington, VT 05405, USA.
J Med Entomol. 2013 Jul;50(4):907-15. doi: 10.1603/me12096.
ABSTRACT Disease transmission is difficult to model because most vectors and hosts have different generation times. Chagas disease is such a situation, where insect vectors have 1-2 generations annually and mammalian hosts, including humans, can live for decades. The hemataphagous triatominae vectors (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) of the causative parasite Trypanosoma cruzi (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae) usually feed on sleeping hosts, making vector infestation of houses, peridomestic areas, and wild animal burrows a central factor in transmission. Because of difficulties with different generation times, we developed a model considering the dwelling as the unit of infection, changing the dynamics from an indirect to a direct transmission model. In some regions, vectors only infest houses; in others, they infest corrals; and in some regions, they also infest wild animal burrows. We examined the effect of sylvatic and peridomestic vector populations on household infestation rates. Both sylvatic and peridomestic vectors increase house infestation rates, sylvatic much more than peridomestic, as measured by the reproductive number R0. The efficacy of manipulating parameters in the model to control vector populations was examined. When R0 > 1, the number of infested houses increases. The presence of sylvatic vectors increases R0 by at least an order of magnitude. When there are no sylvatic vectors, spraying rate is the most influential parameter. Spraying rate is relatively unimportant when there are sylvatic vectors; in this case, community size, especially the ratio of houses to sylvatic burrows, is most important. The application of this modeling approach to other parasites and enhancements of the model are discussed.
摘要 疾病传播很难建模,因为大多数媒介和宿主的世代时间不同。恰加斯病就是这种情况,昆虫媒介每年有 1-2 代,而包括人类在内的哺乳动物宿主可以存活几十年。造成寄生虫克氏锥虫(动基体目:锥虫科)的血食性三锥虫(半翅目:红蝽科)通常以睡眠中的宿主为食,这使得媒介对房屋、周边地区和野生动物洞穴的侵袭成为传播的核心因素。由于世代时间的不同,我们开发了一种以住宅为感染单位的模型,将动力学从间接传播模型转变为直接传播模型。在一些地区,媒介只侵袭房屋;在另一些地区,它们侵袭畜栏;在一些地区,它们也侵袭野生动物洞穴。我们研究了森林和周边地区媒介种群对家庭侵袭率的影响。无论是森林还是周边地区的媒介都增加了房屋的侵袭率,如繁殖数 R0 所衡量的那样,森林媒介的侵袭率比周边地区媒介高得多。还检查了操纵模型中的参数来控制媒介种群的效果。当 R0 > 1 时,受感染房屋的数量会增加。森林媒介的存在将 R0 至少提高一个数量级。当没有森林媒介时,喷洒率是最具影响力的参数。当存在森林媒介时,喷洒率相对不重要;在这种情况下,社区规模,尤其是房屋与森林洞穴的比例,是最重要的。讨论了将这种建模方法应用于其他寄生虫和模型增强的问题。