Sloan J H, Rivara F P, Reay D T, Ferris J A, Kellermann A L
Harborview Injury Prevention and Research Center, Seattle, WA 98104.
N Engl J Med. 1990 Feb 8;322(6):369-73. doi: 10.1056/NEJM199002083220605.
To investigate a possible association between firearm regulations and suicide, we compared the incidence of suicide from 1985 through 1987 in King County, Washington, with that in the Vancouver metropolitan area, British Columbia, where firearm regulations are more restrictive. The risk of death from suicide was not found to differ significantly between King County and the Vancouver area (relative risk, 0.97; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.87 to 1.09). The rate of suicide by firearms, however, was higher in King County (relative risk, 2.34; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.90 to 2.88), because the rate of suicide by handguns was 5.7 times higher there. The difference in the rates of suicide by firearms was offset by a 1.5-fold higher rate of suicide by other means in the Vancouver area. Persons 15 to 24 years old had a higher suicide rate in King County than in the Vancouver area (relative risk, 1.38; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.86). Virtually all the difference was due to an almost 10-fold higher rate of suicide by handguns in King County. We conclude that restricting access to handguns might be expected to reduce the suicide rate in persons 15 to 24 years old, but that it probably would not reduce the overall suicide rate.
为了研究枪支管制与自杀之间可能存在的关联,我们比较了1985年至1987年华盛顿州金县与不列颠哥伦比亚省温哥华都会区的自杀发生率,后者的枪支管制更为严格。未发现金县和温哥华地区的自杀死亡风险存在显著差异(相对风险为0.97;95%置信区间为0.87至1.09)。然而,金县的枪支自杀率更高(相对风险为2.34;95%置信区间为1.90至2.88),因为那里的手枪自杀率高出5.7倍。温哥华地区其他方式的自杀率高出1.5倍,抵消了枪支自杀率的差异。15至24岁人群在金县的自杀率高于温哥华地区(相对风险为1.38;95%置信区间为1.02至1.86)。几乎所有差异都源于金县手枪自杀率高出近10倍。我们得出结论,限制获取手枪可能会降低15至24岁人群的自杀率,但可能不会降低总体自杀率。