International Tobacco Control Research, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, USA.
Tob Control. 2014 May;23(e1):e30-4. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2013-051099. Epub 2013 Aug 13.
To compare two different methods for estimating the size of the illicit cigarette market with each other and to contrast the estimates obtained by these two methods with the results of an industry-commissioned study.
We used two observational methods: collection of data from packs in smokers' personal possession, and collection of data from packs discarded on streets. The data were obtained in Warsaw, Poland in September 2011 and October 2011. We used tests of independence to compare the results based on the two methods, and to contrast those with the estimate from the industry-commissioned discarded pack collection conducted in September 2011.
We found that the proportions of cigarette packs classified as not intended for the Polish market estimated by our two methods were not statistically different. These estimates were 14.6% (95% CI 10.8% to 19.4%) using the survey data (N=400) and 15.6% (95% CI 13.2% to 18.4%) using the discarded pack data (N=754). The industry estimate (22.9%) was higher by nearly a half compared with our estimates, and this difference is statistically significant.
Our findings are consistent with previous evidence of the tobacco industry exaggerating the scope of illicit trade and with the general pattern of the industry manipulating evidence to mislead the debate on tobacco control policy in many countries. Collaboration between governments and the tobacco industry to estimate tobacco tax avoidance and evasion is likely to produce upward-biased estimates of illicit cigarette trade. If governments are presented with industry estimates, they should strictly require a disclosure of all methodological details and data used in generating these estimates, and should seek advice from independent experts.
比较两种不同方法估算非法卷烟市场规模的结果，并将这两种方法的估算结果与行业委托研究的结果进行对比。
我们使用了两种观察方法：收集吸烟者个人拥有的卷烟包装数据，以及收集街头丢弃的卷烟包装数据。数据于 2011 年 9 月和 10 月在波兰华沙收集。我们使用独立性检验来比较两种方法的结果，并将这些结果与 2011 年 9 月行业委托进行的丢弃卷烟包装收集的估计值进行对比。
我们发现，我们的两种方法估算的非波兰市场预期卷烟包装比例没有统计学差异。使用调查数据（N=400）估算的比例为 14.6%（95%CI 10.8%至 19.4%），使用丢弃包装数据（N=754）估算的比例为 15.6%（95%CI 13.2%至 18.4%）。与我们的估算值相比，行业估计值（22.9%）高出近一半，且这一差异具有统计学意义。
我们的研究结果与先前关于烟草业夸大非法贸易规模的证据一致，也与烟草业操纵证据误导许多国家烟草控制政策辩论的总体模式一致。政府与烟草业合作估算烟草税的规避和逃税行为，可能会导致对非法卷烟贸易的高估。如果政府收到行业的估算值，应严格要求披露生成这些估算值所使用的所有方法细节和数据，并应向独立专家寻求建议。
