Arnold M, Holterhues C, Hollestein L M, Coebergh J W W, Nijsten T, Pukkala E, Holleczek B, Tryggvadóttir L, Comber H, Bento M J, Diba Ch S, Micallef R, Primic-Žakelj M, Izarzugaza M I, Perucha J, Marcos-Gragera R, Galceran J, Ardanaz E, Schaffar R, Pring A, de Vries E
Department of Public Health, ErasmusMC University Medical Center Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
J Eur Acad Dermatol Venereol. 2014 Sep;28(9):1170-8. doi: 10.1111/jdv.12236. Epub 2013 Aug 21.
Melanoma is a significant health problem in Caucasian populations. The most recently available data from cancer registries often have a delay of several months up to a few years and they are generally not easily accessible.
To assess recent age- and sex-specific trends in melanoma incidence and make predictions for 2010 and 2015.
A retrospective registry-based analysis was performed with data from 29 European cancer registries. Most of them had data available from 1990 up to 2006/7. World-standardized incidence rates (WSR) and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were computed. Predictions were based on linear projection models.
Overall the incidence of melanoma is rapidly rising and will continue to do so. The incidence among women in Europe was generally higher than in men. The highest incidence rates were seen for Northern and north-western countries like the UK, Ireland and the Netherlands. The lowest incidence rates were observed in Portugal and Spain. The incidence overall remained stable in Norway, where, amongst young (25-49 years) Norwegian males rates significantly decreased (EAPC -2.8, 95% CI -3.6; -2.0). Despite a low melanoma incidence among persons above the age of 70, this age group experienced the greatest increase in risk during the study period.
Incidence rates of melanoma are expected to continue rising. These trends are worrying in terms of disease burden, particularly in eastern European countries.
黑色素瘤在白种人群中是一个严重的健康问题。癌症登记处的最新可用数据往往会延迟数月至数年，而且通常不易获取。
评估黑色素瘤发病率近期的年龄和性别特异性趋势，并对2010年和2015年进行预测。
利用来自29个欧洲癌症登记处的数据进行了一项基于登记处的回顾性分析。其中大多数登记处有1990年至2006/7年的数据。计算了世界标准化发病率（WSR）和估计年变化百分比（EAPC）。预测基于线性投影模型。
总体而言，黑色素瘤的发病率正在迅速上升，并将继续上升。欧洲女性的发病率普遍高于男性。在英国、爱尔兰和荷兰等北欧和西北欧国家，发病率最高。在葡萄牙和西班牙，发病率最低。挪威的发病率总体保持稳定，在那里，年轻（25 - 49岁）挪威男性的发病率显著下降（EAPC -2.8，95% CI -3.6；-2.0）。尽管70岁以上人群的黑色素瘤发病率较低，但在研究期间，这个年龄组的风险增加最大。
黑色素瘤的发病率预计将继续上升。就疾病负担而言，这些趋势令人担忧，尤其是在东欧国家。
