National Technical University of Athens, Greece.
Accid Anal Prev. 2013 Oct;59:593-603. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2013.07.015. Epub 2013 Jul 31.
This research aims to explore the relationship between road safety management and road safety performance at country level. For that purpose, an appropriate theoretical framework is selected, namely the 'SUNflower' pyramid, which describes road safety management systems in terms of a five-level hierarchy: (i) structure and culture, (ii) programmes and measures, (iii) 'intermediate' outcomes'--safety performance indicators (SPIs), (iv) final outcomes--fatalities and injuries, and (v) social costs. For each layer of the pyramid, a composite indicator is implemented, on the basis of data for 30 European countries. Especially as regards road safety management indicators, these are estimated on the basis of Categorical Principal Component Analysis upon the responses of a dedicated road safety management questionnaire, jointly created and dispatched by the ETSC/PIN group and the 'DaCoTA' research project. Then, quasi-Poisson models and Beta regression models are developed for linking road safety management indicators and other indicators (i.e. background characteristics, SPIs) with road safety performance. In this context, different indicators of road safety performance are explored: mortality and fatality rates, percentage reduction in fatalities over a given period, a composite indicator of road safety final outcomes, and a composite indicator of 'intermediate' outcomes (SPIs). The results of the analyses suggest that road safety management can be described on the basis of three composite indicators: "vision and strategy", "budget, evaluation and reporting", and "measurement of road user attitudes and behaviours". Moreover, no direct statistical relationship could be established between road safety management indicators and final outcomes. However, a statistical relationship was found between road safety management and 'intermediate' outcomes, which were in turn found to affect 'final' outcomes, confirming the SUNflower approach on the consecutive effect of each layer.
本研究旨在探讨国家层面的道路安全管理与道路安全绩效之间的关系。为此,选择了一个合适的理论框架,即“SUNflower”金字塔,它根据五层层次结构描述道路安全管理系统:(i)结构和文化,(ii)方案和措施,(iii)“中间”结果——安全绩效指标(SPIs),(iv)最终结果——死亡和伤害,以及(v)社会成本。对于金字塔的每一层,都实施了一个综合指标,基于 30 个欧洲国家的数据。特别是在道路安全管理指标方面,这些指标是根据 ETSC/PIN 小组和“DaCoTA”研究项目联合创建和分发的专门道路安全管理问卷的回答,通过分类主成分分析来估计的。然后,开发了拟泊松模型和贝塔回归模型,以将道路安全管理指标和其他指标(即背景特征、SPIs)与道路安全绩效联系起来。在这种情况下,探索了不同的道路安全绩效指标:死亡率和病死率、给定时间段内死亡人数的百分比降低、道路安全最终结果的综合指标以及道路安全“中间”结果(SPIs)的综合指标。分析结果表明,可以根据三个综合指标来描述道路安全管理:“愿景和战略”、“预算、评估和报告”以及“道路使用者态度和行为的测量”。此外,道路安全管理指标与最终结果之间没有建立直接的统计关系。然而,在道路安全管理和“中间”结果之间发现了统计关系,而“中间”结果又反过来影响“最终”结果,证实了 SUNflower 方法在每一层的连续效应。