School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China ; Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing, China ; School of Medical Sciences, Edith Cowan University, Perth, Australia.
PLoS One. 2013 Aug 20;8(8):e71818. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0071818. eCollection 2013.
It is critical to distinguish events that are temporarily associated with, but not caused by, vaccination from those caused by vaccination during mass immunization. We performed a literature search in China National Knowledge Infrastructure and Pubmed databases. The number of coincident events was calculated based on its incidence rate and periods after receipt of a dose of hypothesized vaccine. We included background incidences of Guillain-Barré syndrome, anaphylaxis, seizure, sudden adult death syndrome, sudden cardiac death, spontaneous abortion, and preterm labour or delivery. In a cohort of 10 million individuals, 7.71 cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome would be expected to occur within six weeks of vaccination as coincident background cases. Even for rare events, a large number of events can be expected in a short period because of the large population targeted for immunization. These findings may encourage health authorities to screen the safety of vaccines against unpredictable pathogens.
在大规模免疫接种期间，区分与疫苗接种暂时相关但并非由疫苗接种引起的事件与由疫苗接种引起的事件至关重要。我们在中国国家知识基础设施和 PubMed 数据库中进行了文献检索。根据假设疫苗接种后发病率和时间，计算了偶合事件的数量。我们包括 Guillain-Barré 综合征、过敏反应、癫痫发作、青少年猝死综合征、心脏性猝死、自然流产和早产或分娩的背景发病率。在 1000 万人的队列中，预计在接种疫苗后 6 周内会有 7.71 例 Guillain-Barré 综合征病例作为偶合背景病例发生。即使是罕见事件，由于针对大量人群进行免疫接种，短期内也会出现大量事件。这些发现可能会鼓励卫生当局对针对不可预测病原体的疫苗进行安全性筛选。
