Hayward M D, Grady W R
Andrus Gerontology Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles 90089-0191.
Demography. 1990 Aug;27(3):337-56.
Multivariate increment-decrement working life tables are estimated for a cohort of older men in the United States for the period 1966-1983. The approach taken allows multiple processes to be simultaneously incorporated into a single model, resulting in a more realistic portrayal of a cohort's late-life labor force behavior. In addition, because the life table model is developed from multivariate hazard equations, we identify the effects of sociodemographic characteristics on the potentially complex process by which the labor force career is ended. In contrast to the assumed homogeneity of previous working life table analyses, the present study shows marked differences in labor force mobility and working and nonworking life expectancy according to occupation, class of worker, education, race, and marital status. We briefly discuss the implications of these findings for inequities of access to retirement, private and public pension consumption, and future changes in the retirement process.
针对1966年至1983年期间美国老年男性队列，估算了多变量增减工作寿命表。所采用的方法允许将多个过程同时纳入单个模型，从而更真实地描绘一个队列的晚年劳动力行为。此外，由于生命表模型是从多变量风险方程发展而来的，我们确定了社会人口特征对劳动力职业生涯结束这一潜在复杂过程的影响。与以往工作寿命表分析中假定的同质性不同，本研究表明，根据职业、工人阶级、教育程度、种族和婚姻状况，劳动力流动性、工作和非工作预期寿命存在显著差异。我们简要讨论了这些发现对退休机会不平等、私人和公共养老金消费以及退休过程未来变化的影响。
