Robison Julie, Shugrue Noreen, Fortinsky Richard H, Gruman Cynthia
*Address correspondence to Julie Robison, Center on Aging, University of Connecticut Health Center, MC 5215, 263 Farmington Avenue, Farmington, CT 06030-5215. E-mail:
Gerontologist. 2014 Apr;54(2):297-313. doi: 10.1093/geront/gnt094. Epub 2013 Aug 29.
Little is known about adults' future planning for long-term supports and services (LTSS), and no studies have examined how LTSS planning compares between Baby Boomers and their parents' generation. The primary aim of this study is to examine the potential influences of birth cohort and gender on LTSS planning. Drawing on Andersen's Behavioral Model of Health Services Use, birth cohort and gender are viewed as predisposing characteristics, and several additional predisposing, enabling, and need characteristics are included as independent variables.
Cross-sectional design; data obtained from a statewide survey of 2,522 randomly selected Baby Boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) and older adults (born before 1946).
Two thirds of respondents expected to need LTSS, but few reported saving for such services. Controlling for other independent variables, compared with older adults, Baby Boomers were significantly more likely to plan to move to an apartment, live in a retirement community or assisted living, and live with an adult child. Conversely, women were more likely than men to report planning to use specific LTSS such as homecare, but specific LTSS plans did not vary by birth cohort.
Policymakers and providers should prepare for a shift in community planning to accommodate the changing plans and expectations of Baby Boomers, large numbers of whom plan to age in existing homes and retirement communities, or live with adult children, with increasing demand for informal family support. The LTSS industry should also adapt to meet the need for formal services, which will likely continue to grow.
对于成年人针对长期支持与服务（LTSS）的未来规划，我们了解甚少，且尚无研究考察婴儿潮一代与其父母辈在LTSS规划方面的比较情况。本研究的主要目的是考察出生队列和性别对LTSS规划的潜在影响。借鉴安德森的卫生服务利用行为模型，出生队列和性别被视为易患特征，同时还纳入了其他几个易患、促成和需求特征作为自变量。
横断面设计；数据来自对2522名随机抽取的婴儿潮一代（出生于1946年至1964年之间）和老年人（出生于1946年之前）进行的全州范围调查。
三分之二的受访者预计需要LTSS，但很少有人报告为这类服务存钱。在控制了其他自变量后，与老年人相比，婴儿潮一代更有可能计划搬到公寓居住、入住退休社区或辅助生活机构，以及与成年子女同住。相反，女性比男性更有可能报告计划使用诸如居家护理等特定的LTSS，但特定的LTSS计划在不同出生队列之间并无差异。
政策制定者和服务提供者应为社区规划的转变做好准备，以适应婴儿潮一代不断变化的规划和期望。大量婴儿潮一代计划在现有住房和退休社区养老，或与成年子女同住，对非正式家庭支持的需求也日益增加。LTSS行业也应做出调整，以满足对正式服务可能持续增长的需求。
