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印度癌症发病病例预测——至2026年。

Projection of cancer incident cases for India -till 2026.

作者信息

D'Souza Neevan Divya Rani, Murthy Nandagudi Srinivasa, Aras Radha Yeshwant

机构信息

Department of Community Medicine, Yenepoya Medical College, Yenepoya University, Mangalore Bangalore, India.

出版信息

Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2013;14(7):4379-86.


DOI:
PMID:23992007
Abstract

Projection of cancer incidence is essential for planning cancer control actions, health care and allocation of resources. Here we project the cancer burden at the National and State level to understand the magnitude of cancer problem for the various calendar years from 2011 to 2026 at 5-yearly intervals. The age, sex and site-wise cancer incidence data along with populations covered by the registries were obtained from the report of National Cancer Registry Programme published by Indian Council of Medical Research for the period 2001-2004. Pooled age sex specific cancer incidence rates were obtained by taking weighted averages of these seventeen registries with respective registry populations as weights. The pooled incidence rates were assumed to represent the country's incidence rates. Populations of the country according to age and sex exposed to the risk of development of cancer in different calendar years were obtained from the report of Registrar General of India providing population projections for the country for the years from 2001 to 2026. Population forecasts were combined with the pooled incidence rates to estimate the projected number of cancer cases by age, sex and site of cancer at various 5-yearly periods Viz. 2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026. The projections were carried out for the various leading sites as well as for 'all sites' of cancer. In India, in 2011, nearly 1,193,000 new cancer cases were estimated; a higher load among females (603,500) than males (589,800) was noted. It is estimated that the total number of new cases in males will increased from 0.589 million in 2011 to 0.934 million by the year 2026. In females the new cases of cancer increased from 0.603 to 0.935 million. Three top most occurring cancers namely those of tobacco related cancers in both sexes, breast and cervical cancers in women account for over 50 to 60 percent of all cancers. When adjustments for increasing tobacco habits and increasing trends in many cancers are made, the estimates may further increase. The leading sites of cancers in males are lung, oesophagus, larynx, mouth, tongue and in females breast and cervix uteri. The main factors contributing to high burden of cancer over the years are increase in the population size as well as increase in proportion of elderly population, urbanization, and globalization. The cancer incidence results show an urgent need for strengthening and augmenting the existing diagnostic/treatment facilities, which are inadequate even to tackle the present load.

摘要

癌症发病率预测对于规划癌症控制行动、医疗保健及资源分配至关重要。在此,我们对国家和邦层面的癌症负担进行预测,以了解2011年至2026年各历年每5年间隔期内癌症问题的严重程度。年龄、性别和部位特异性癌症发病率数据以及登记处覆盖的人口数据,取自印度医学研究理事会发布的2001 - 2004年期间国家癌症登记计划报告。通过以这些十七个登记处各自的登记人口为权重,对其进行加权平均,得出合并的年龄性别特异性癌症发病率。假定合并发病率代表该国的发病率。不同历年中面临患癌风险的按年龄和性别的该国人口数据,取自印度注册总署的报告,该报告提供了该国2001年至2026年的人口预测。将人口预测与合并发病率相结合,以估计在各个5年期间(即2011年、2016年、2021年和2026年)按年龄、性别和癌症部位划分的预计癌症病例数。对各种主要癌症部位以及“所有癌症部位”都进行了预测。在印度,2011年估计有近119.3万例新癌症病例;注意到女性(60.35万例)的病例数高于男性(58.98万例)。据估计,男性新病例总数将从2011年的58.9万例增加到2026年的93.4万例。女性癌症新病例数从60.3万例增加到93.5万例。三种最常见的癌症,即男女两性与烟草相关的癌症、女性的乳腺癌和宫颈癌,占所有癌症的50%至60%以上。若对吸烟习惯增加以及许多癌症的上升趋势进行调整,估计数可能会进一步增加。男性癌症的主要发病部位是肺癌、食管癌、喉癌、口腔癌、舌癌,女性则是乳腺癌和子宫颈癌。多年来导致癌症高负担的主要因素是人口规模的增加以及老年人口比例的上升、城市化和全球化。癌症发病率结果表明,迫切需要加强和扩充现有的诊断/治疗设施,因为这些设施甚至不足以应对目前的负担。

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[3]
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[4]
Changing patterns of cancer burden among elderly across Indian states: Evidence from the global burden of disease study 1990-2019.

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[5]
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[6]
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[7]
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[8]
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