D'Souza Neevan Divya Rani, Murthy Nandagudi Srinivasa, Aras Radha Yeshwant
Department of Community Medicine, Yenepoya Medical College, Yenepoya University, Mangalore, India.
Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2013;14(7):4387-92.
Projection of load of cancer mortality helps in quantifying the burden of cancer and is essential for planning cancer control activities. As per our knowledge, there have not been many attempts to project the cancer mortality burden at the country level in India mainly due to lack of data on cancer mortality at the national and state level. This is an attempt to understand the magnitude of cancer mortality problem for the various calendar years from 2011 to 2026 at 5-yearly intervals. Age, sex and site-wise specific cancer mortality data along with populations covered by the registries were obtained from the report of National Cancer Registry Programme published by Indian Council of Medical Research for the period 2001-2004. Pooled age sex specific cancer mortality rates were obtained by taking weighted average of these six registries with respective registry populations as weights. The pooled mortality rates were assumed to represent the country's mortality rates. Populations of the country according to age and sex exposed to the risk of cancer mortality in different calendar years were obtained from the report of Registrar General of India providing population projections for the country for the years from 2011 to 2026. Population forecasts were combined with the pooled mortality rates to estimate the projected number of cancer mortality cases by age, sex and site of cancer at various 5-yearly periods Viz. 2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026. The projections were carried out for the various cancer-leading sites as well as for 'all sites' of cancer. The results revealed that an estimated 0.44 million died due to cancer during the year 2011, while 0.51 million and 0.60 million persons are likely to die from cancer in 2016 and 2021. In the year 2011 male mortality was estimated to be 0.23 million and female mortality to be 0.20 million. The estimated cancer mortality would increase to 0.70 million by the year 2026 as a result of change in size and composition of population. In males increase will be to 0.38 millions and in females to 0.32 millions. Among women, cancer of the breast, cervical and ovary account for 34 percent of all cancer deaths. The leading sites of cancer mortality in males are lung, oesophagus, prostrate and stomach. The above results show a need for commitment for tackling cancer by reducing risk factors and strengthening the existing screening and treatment facilities.
癌症死亡率负荷预测有助于量化癌症负担，对于规划癌症控制活动至关重要。据我们所知，印度在国家层面上对癌症死亡率负担进行预测的尝试并不多，主要原因是缺乏国家和邦层面的癌症死亡率数据。本文旨在了解2011年至2026年期间每隔5年各历年的癌症死亡率问题的严重程度。年龄、性别和部位特异性癌症死亡率数据以及登记处覆盖的人口数据，取自印度医学研究理事会发布的2001 - 2004年期间国家癌症登记计划报告。通过以各登记处人口为权重对这六个登记处进行加权平均，得出合并的年龄性别特异性癌症死亡率。假定合并死亡率代表该国的死亡率。不同历年中面临癌症死亡风险的按年龄和性别的该国人口数据，取自印度注册总署的报告，该报告提供了该国2011年至2026年的人口预测。将人口预测与合并死亡率相结合，以估计在各个5年期间（即2011年、2016年、2021年和2026年）按年龄、性别和癌症部位划分的癌症死亡病例预测数。对各种癌症主要部位以及癌症“所有部位”都进行了预测。结果显示，2011年估计有44万人死于癌症，而2016年和2021年可能分别有51万人和60万人死于癌症。2011年男性死亡率估计为23万，女性死亡率为20万。由于人口规模和构成的变化，到2026年估计癌症死亡率将增至70万。男性将增至38万，女性将增至32万。在女性中，乳腺癌、宫颈癌和卵巢癌占所有癌症死亡人数的34%。男性癌症死亡的主要部位是肺癌、食道癌、前列腺癌和胃癌。上述结果表明，需要致力于通过降低风险因素以及加强现有的筛查和治疗设施来应对癌症。
