Langlois Peter H, Canfield Mark A, Swartz Michael D
Birth Defects Epidemiology and Surveillance Branch, Texas Department of State Health Services, Austin, Texas.
Birth Defects Res A Clin Mol Teratol. 2013 Oct;97(10):702-7. doi: 10.1002/bdra.23167. Epub 2013 Sep 2.
The objective of this study was to compare results from four statistical approaches to describe the epidemiology of a birth defect.
Cases of tracheoesophageal fistula and/or esophageal atresia were selected from the Texas Birth Defects Registry, and live births from Texas birth certificate data. All were delivered in 1999 through 2009. Data on infant and maternal characteristics were taken from the vital record. Four approaches were compared: a cohort design using Poisson regression (PR) and three case-control analyses using logistic regression (LR) with 10 controls per case (LR10), four controls per case (LR4), or affected controls having other birth defects. Analyses were conducted for all 11 years and for just 1 year (2009).
Using all 11 years, there were 869 cases of tracheoesophageal fistula and/or esophageal atresia, and results for PR, LR10, and LR4 were similar. Results using only 2009 were more divergent: PR yielded more statistically significant global tests (type III analyses) and narrower 95% confidence intervals, followed closely by LR10. For both time periods, results using affected controls were different from those using PR and LR.
For these descriptive epidemiologic analyses, PR yielded the most precise estimates. However, LR provided similar estimates, and using 10 controls per case yielded precision almost as good as PR.
本研究的目的是比较四种统计方法描述出生缺陷流行病学的结果。
从德克萨斯州出生缺陷登记处选取食管气管瘘和/或食管闭锁病例,并从德克萨斯州出生证明数据中选取活产病例。所有病例均为1999年至2009年期间分娩。婴儿和母亲特征的数据取自生命记录。比较了四种方法:使用泊松回归(PR)的队列设计和三种病例对照分析,病例对照分析使用逻辑回归(LR),每个病例分别设10个对照(LR10)、4个对照(LR4)或患有其他出生缺陷的患病对照。对整个11年以及仅1年(2009年)的数据进行了分析。
在整个11年期间,有869例食管气管瘘和/或食管闭锁病例,PR、LR10和LR4的结果相似。仅使用2009年的数据时结果差异更大:PR得出的统计学显著的全局检验(III型分析)更多,95%置信区间更窄,LR10紧随其后。在两个时间段内,使用患病对照的结果与使用PR和LR的结果不同。
对于这些描述性流行病学分析,PR得出的估计最为精确。然而,LR提供了相似的估计,每个病例使用10个对照得出的精度几乎与PR一样好。