Department of Community Medicine, University of Tromsø, Tromsø, Norway.
Environ Health Perspect. 2013 Nov-Dec;121(11-12):1292-8. doi: 10.1289/ehp.1206317. Epub 2013 Sep 5.
Longitudinal monitoring studies of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in human populations are important to better understand changes with time and age, and for future predictions.
We sought to describe serum POP time trends on an individual level, investigate age-period-cohort effects, and compare predicted polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentrations to measured values.
Serum was sampled in 1979, 1986, 1994, 2001, and 2007 from a cohort of 53 men in Northern Norway and analyzed for 41 POPs. Time period, age, and birth cohort effects were assessed by graphical analyses and mixed-effect models. We derived the predicted concentrations of four PCBs for each sampling year using the CoZMoMAN model.
The median decreases in summed serum POP concentrations (lipid-adjusted) in 1986, 1994, 2001, and 2007 relative to 1979 were -22%, -52%, -54%, and -68%, respectively. We observed substantial declines in all POP groups with the exception of chlordanes. Time period (reflected by sampling year) was the strongest descriptor of changes in PCB-153 concentrations. Predicted PCB-153 concentrations were consistent with measured concentrations in the study population.
Our results suggest substantial intraindividual declines in serum concentrations of legacy POPs from 1979 to 2007 in men from Northern Norway. These changes are consistent with reduced environmental exposure during these 30 years and highlight the relation between historic emissions and POP concentrations measured in humans. Observed data and interpretations are supported by estimates from the CoZMoMAN emission-based model. A longitudinal decrease in concentrations with age was evident for all birth cohorts. Overall, our findings support the relevance of age-period-cohort effects to human biomonitoring of environmental contaminants.
对人类群体中持久性有机污染物 (POPs) 的纵向监测研究对于更好地了解随时间和年龄的变化以及未来的预测非常重要。
我们旨在描述个体血清 POP 的时间趋势，研究年龄-时期-队列效应，并将预测的多氯联苯 (PCB) 浓度与实测值进行比较。
1979 年、1986 年、1994 年、2001 年和 2007 年，从挪威北部的一个队列中抽取了 53 名男性的血清样本，并对 41 种 POP 进行了分析。通过图形分析和混合效应模型评估了时间周期、年龄和出生队列的影响。我们使用 CoZMoMAN 模型为每个采样年份推导出四种 PCB 的预测浓度。
与 1979 年相比，1986 年、1994 年、2001 年和 2007 年血清中总 POP 浓度（按脂质调整）的中位数下降分别为-22%、-52%、-54%和-68%。除了氯丹外，我们观察到所有 POP 组都有显著下降。时间期（反映在采样年份）是 PCB-153 浓度变化的最强描述符。预测的 PCB-153 浓度与研究人群中的实测浓度一致。
我们的结果表明，1979 年至 2007 年间，挪威北部男性血清中传统 POP 浓度显著下降。这些变化与这 30 年来环境暴露减少一致，并突出了历史排放与人类体内 POP 浓度之间的关系。观察到的数据和解释得到了 CoZMoMAN 基于排放的模型的估计支持。所有出生队列的浓度随年龄的纵向下降都很明显。总体而言，我们的研究结果支持年龄-时期-队列效应对人类环境污染物生物监测的相关性。
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