Towards an understanding of the link between environmental emissions and human body burdens of PCBs using CoZMoMAN.

Different factors affect how organic contaminants released into the environment over time distribute and accumulate, enter various food-chains, and potentially cause toxic effects in wildlife and humans. A sound chemical risk assessment thus requires the determination of the quantitative relationship between emissions and human exposure. This study aimed to assess the extent of the quantitative and mechanistic understanding of the link between environmental emissions and human body burdens for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the western part of the Baltic Sea drainage basin and to identify any remaining knowledge gaps. An integrated, non-steady state model calculating human body burden from environmental emissions (CoZMoMAN) was created by linking the multi-compartment environmental fate model CoZMo-POP 2 with the human food chain bioaccumulation model ACC-HUMAN. CoZMoMAN predicted concentrations of seven PCB congeners in 11 key model compartments to typically within a factor of 2 to 4 of measured values, although larger discrepancies are noted for soils and humans. We conclude that whereas the most important processes which link emissions of PCBs to human body burdens are quite well understood in this region, some critical knowledge gaps related to the time trend of historical emissions remain to be addressed.