Norwegian Institute for Air Research, P.O. Box 100, NO-2027 Kjeller, Norway; University of Oslo, Department of Chemistry, P.O. Box 1033, NO-0315 Oslo, Norway.
Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM), Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden.
Environ Int. 2010 Jan;36(1):85-91. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2009.10.006. Epub 2009 Nov 13.
Different factors affect how organic contaminants released into the environment over time distribute and accumulate, enter various food-chains, and potentially cause toxic effects in wildlife and humans. A sound chemical risk assessment thus requires the determination of the quantitative relationship between emissions and human exposure. This study aimed to assess the extent of the quantitative and mechanistic understanding of the link between environmental emissions and human body burdens for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the western part of the Baltic Sea drainage basin and to identify any remaining knowledge gaps. An integrated, non-steady state model calculating human body burden from environmental emissions (CoZMoMAN) was created by linking the multi-compartment environmental fate model CoZMo-POP 2 with the human food chain bioaccumulation model ACC-HUMAN. CoZMoMAN predicted concentrations of seven PCB congeners in 11 key model compartments to typically within a factor of 2 to 4 of measured values, although larger discrepancies are noted for soils and humans. We conclude that whereas the most important processes which link emissions of PCBs to human body burdens are quite well understood in this region, some critical knowledge gaps related to the time trend of historical emissions remain to be addressed.
不同的因素会影响有机污染物在环境中随时间的分布和积累方式、进入各种食物链的方式，以及对野生动物和人类产生潜在毒性的方式。因此，一个健全的化学风险评估需要确定排放与人类暴露之间的定量关系。本研究旨在评估波罗的海西部地区环境排放与人体负荷之间联系的定量和机制理解程度，并确定任何剩余的知识空白。通过将多 compartment 环境命运模型 CoZMo-POP2 与人类食物链生物累积模型 ACC-HUMAN 相链接，创建了一个从环境排放计算人体负荷的综合非稳态模型（CoZMoMAN）。CoZMoMAN 预测了 11 个关键模型 compartment 中七种 PCB 同系物的浓度，通常与实测值相差 2 到 4 倍，但土壤和人类的差异较大。我们得出的结论是，尽管该地区对将 PCB 排放与人体负荷联系起来的最重要过程有了相当好的理解，但仍存在一些与历史排放时间趋势相关的关键知识空白需要解决。
