Temporal trends of legacy POPs in Arctic biota, an update.

A statistically robust method was applied to 316 time-series of 'legacy' persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in Arctic biota from marine, freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems with the purpose of generating a 'meta-analysis' of temporal trend data collected over the past two to three decades for locations from Alaska in the west to northern Scandinavian in the east. Information from recently published temporal trend studies was tabulated and comparisons were also drawn with trends in arctic air. Most of the analysed time-series of legacy POP compounds showed decreasing trends, with only a few time-series showing significantly increasing trends. Compounds such as alpha-HCH, gamma-HCH and SigmaDDT had a relatively high proportion of time-series showing significantly decreasing trends; SigmaCHL had the lowest proportion. beta-HCH was an exception, where long-range transport through the ocean, and not the atmosphere, may explain several increasing trends that were detected in the Canadian Arctic. Moving east from the Canadian Arctic there was a trend towards a greater proportion of significantly decreasing trends. Several time-series for DDE and SigmaDDT showed significantly non-exponential trends, most often with a period of relative stability followed by a decrease. The median 'minimum detectable annual change within a 10-year period' for all of the time-series considered was 12% which did not meet the desirable level of statistical power capable of detecting a 5% annual change with a significance level of 5% within a 10-year period. The trends observed in the biota were consistent with decreasing trends of legacy POPs reported for Arctic air which appear to follow historic decreases in emissions. However, recent decreases in air are also starting to show signs of levelling off which may be an indication that atmospheric concentrations and, consequently those in the biota, are being less driven by primary sources and more by environmental processes and degradation.