大流行性流感对泰国、南非和乌干达的宏观经济影响及相关政策。
Macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda.
机构信息
Faculty of Public Health & Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
出版信息
Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2013 Sep;7 Suppl 2(Suppl 2):64-71. doi: 10.1111/irv.12083.
BACKGROUND
Research has shown the value of conducting a macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries, and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries.
OBJECTIVES
To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009.
METHODS
A single-country whole-economy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure.
RESULTS
Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses.
CONCLUSION
The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence.
背景
研究表明，对流感大流行的影响进行宏观经济分析具有价值。然而，先前的建模应用主要集中在高收入国家，关于流感大流行对中低收入国家可能造成的影响，相关证据仍然不足。
目的
特别参考 2009 年大流行（H1N1），估算泰国、南非和乌干达的大流行性流感的宏观经济影响。
方法
为上述三个国家中的每一个国家建立了一个单一国家的整体经济可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型，并用于估算发病率、死亡率和学校关闭导致劳动力减少对经济的影响。
结果
所有国家和所有情景的总体 GDP 影响均低于 GDP 的 1%。乌干达的损失比例大于泰国和南非。劳动密集型部门遭受的损失最大。
结论
如果发生流感大流行，不可避免的缺勤对低收入国家的经济成本的比例可能更大。轻度大流行（如 2009 年大流行（H1N1））的成本似乎很小，但对于更严重的大流行和/或行为改变和可避免缺勤更多的大流行，成本可能会增加。
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