Kabajulizi Judith
School of Economics, Finance and Accounting, and Research Centre for Corporate and Financial Integrity Coventry University Coventry UK.
J Int Dev. 2022 Dec 7. doi: 10.1002/jid.3727.
This study examines the economy-wide implications of infectious diseases, taking the case of the Covid-19 pandemic in Uganda. Covid-19 containment measures generated social and economic consequences. We employ a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model to evaluate the implications on the economy. We design scenarios to mimic the containment policies via labour supply, labour productivity, government healthcare spending and remittance inflows. Results indicate that growth in sector output declines when compared to the no-Covid-19 baseline. However, export growth rates are predicted to be higher. Increased government healthcare spending induces expansion in the healthcare output, but the sectors that produce the intermediate inputs for healthcare production do not grow in tandem. Household welfare declines, and the loss is largest among the top quintile households in both rural and urban areas. Policymakers should revisit Uganda's industrial policy towards domestic production of intermediate inputs to critical domestic sectors such as healthcare. Also, accelerate rural infrastructure development particularly the road network, to facilitate an integrated rural economy induced by the shift in labour and enterprise towards rural areas.
本研究以乌干达的新冠疫情为例，考察了传染病对整个经济的影响。新冠疫情防控措施产生了社会和经济后果。我们采用递归动态可计算一般均衡模型来评估其对经济的影响。我们设计了情景，通过劳动力供给、劳动生产率、政府医疗支出和汇款流入来模拟防控政策。结果表明，与无新冠疫情的基线相比，各部门产出增长下降。然而，预计出口增长率会更高。政府医疗支出增加促使医疗产出扩张，但为医疗生产提供中间投入的部门并未同步增长。家庭福利下降，且城乡最富裕的五分之一家庭损失最大。政策制定者应重新审视乌干达针对关键国内部门（如医疗）中间投入品国内生产的产业政策。此外，加快农村基础设施建设，特别是道路网络建设，以促进因劳动力和企业向农村地区转移而形成的农村经济一体化。
