Institute for Parasitology, University of Veterinary Medicine Hannover, Hannover, Germany.
PLoS One. 2013 Sep 5;8(9):e74429. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0074429. eCollection 2013.
In November 2008, a total of 19,910 bulk tank milk (BTM) samples were obtained from dairy farms from all over Germany, corresponding to about 20% of all German dairy herds, and analysed for antibodies against the bovine lungworm Dictyocaulus viviparus by use of the recombinant MSP-ELISA. A total number of 3,397 (17.1%; n = 19,910) BTM samples tested seropositive. The prevalences in individual German federal states varied between 0.0% and 31.2% positive herds. A geospatial map was drawn to show the distribution of seropositive and seronegative herds per postal code area. ELISA results were further analysed for associations with land-use and climate data. Bivariate statistical analysis was used to identify potential spatial risk factors for dictyocaulosis. Statistically significant positive associations were found between lungworm seropositive herds and the proportion of water bodies and grassed area per postal code area. Variables that showed a statistically significant association with a positive BTM test were included in a logistic regression model, which was further refined by controlled stepwise selection of variables. The low Pseudo R(2) values (0.08 for the full model and 0.06 for the final model) and further evaluation of the model by ROC analysis indicate that additional, unrecorded factors (e.g. management factors) or random effects may substantially contribute to lungworm infections in dairy cows. Veterinarians should include lungworms in the differential diagnosis of respiratory disease in dairy cattle, particularly those at pasture. Monitoring of herds through BTM screening for antibodies can help farmers and veterinarians plan and implement appropriate control measures.
2008 年 11 月，从德国各地的奶牛场采集了共计 19910 份散装奶（BTM）样本，占德国所有奶牛场的约 20%，并用重组 MSP-ELISA 法检测这些样本针对牛肺线虫 Dictyocaulus viviparus 的抗体。共有 3397 份（17.1%；n=19910）BTM 样本检测呈血清阳性。德国各联邦州的阳性畜群比例在 0.0%至 31.2%之间不等。绘制了一个地理空间地图，显示了按邮政编码区域划分的血清阳性和血清阴性畜群的分布情况。进一步对 ELISA 结果进行分析，以确定与土地利用和气候数据的关联。使用双变量统计分析来确定潜在的空间肺线虫病风险因素。统计学上显著的阳性关联存在于肺线虫血清阳性畜群与每个邮政编码区域的水体和草地面积比例之间。与 BTM 检测呈阳性相关的变量被纳入逻辑回归模型，通过对变量进行有控制的逐步选择对模型进行进一步优化。低伪 R²值（全模型为 0.08，最终模型为 0.06），以及通过 ROC 分析对模型的进一步评估表明，其他未记录的因素（例如管理因素）或随机效应可能对奶牛的肺线虫感染有很大贡献。兽医应将肺线虫纳入奶牛呼吸疾病的鉴别诊断，特别是那些放牧的奶牛。通过 BTM 筛选抗体对畜群进行监测，有助于农民和兽医规划和实施适当的控制措施。
