Institute for Parasitology, University of Veterinary Medicine Hannover, Buenteweg 17, 30559 Hannover, Germany.
Parasitology. 2013 Jul;140(8):1051-60. doi: 10.1017/S0031182013000395.
A total of 20 749 bulk tank milk (BTM) samples was collected in November 2008 from all over Germany, corresponding to 20.9% of all German dairy herds. The BTM samples were analysed for antibodies against Fasciola hepatica using the excretory-secretory (ES) ELISA. A geospatial map was drawn to show herd prevalences per postal code area. Various spatial risk factors were tested for potential statistical associations with the ELISA results in logistic regression supported by a geographical information system (GIS). The mean seroprevalence was 23.6% and prevalences in different German federal states varied between 2.6% and 38.4%. GIS analysis revealed statistically significant positive associations between the proportion of grassed area and water bodies per postal code area and positive BTM ELISA results. This can be explained by the biology of the intermediate host, the amphibious snail Galba (Lymnea) truncatula and the pasture-borne nature of fasciolosis. The full logistic regression model had a Pseudo-R 2 of 22%, while the final model obtained by controlled stepwise model building revealed a Pseudo-R 2 of 14%, indicating that additional, unrecorded factors and random effects contributed substantially to the occurrence of positive ELISA results. Considering the high seroprevalences in some areas and the economic impact of fasciolosis, farmers and veterinarians should be strongly advised to implement effective liver fluke control programmes.
2008 年 11 月，从德国各地采集了总共 20749 份散装牛奶（BTM）样本，占德国所有奶牛场的 20.9%。使用排泄分泌酶联免疫吸附试验（ES ELISA）对 BTM 样本进行了抗肝片吸虫抗体分析。绘制了一个地理空间地图，显示了每个邮政编码区域的畜群流行率。在地理信息系统（GIS）支持下的逻辑回归中，测试了各种空间风险因素与 ELISA 结果之间的潜在统计学关联。平均血清阳性率为 23.6%，德国不同联邦州的阳性率在 2.6%至 38.4%之间不等。GIS 分析显示，邮政编码区域内草地面积和水体比例与 BTM ELISA 阳性结果之间存在统计学上显著的正相关。这可以用中间宿主、两栖蜗牛 Galba（Lymnea）truncatula 的生物学和肝片吸虫病的牧场传播性质来解释。全逻辑回归模型的伪 R 2 为 22%，而通过有控制的逐步模型构建获得的最终模型的伪 R 2 为 14%，这表明其他未记录的因素和随机效应对阳性 ELISA 结果的发生有很大贡献。考虑到某些地区的高血清阳性率和肝片吸虫病的经济影响，应强烈建议农民和兽医实施有效的肝吸虫控制计划。
