Lee Rachel M, Lessler Justin, Lee Rose A, Rudolph Kara E, Reich Nicholas G, Perl Trish M, Cummings Derek A T
Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, USA.
BMC Infect Dis. 2013 Sep 25;13:446. doi: 10.1186/1471-2334-13-446.
Accurate knowledge of incubation period is important to investigate and to control infectious diseases and their transmission, however statements of incubation period in the literature are often uncited, inconsistent, and/or not evidence based.
In a systematic review of the literature on five enteric viruses of public health importance, we found 256 articles with incubation period estimates, including 33 with data for pooled analysis.
We fit a log-normal distribution to pooled data and found the median incubation period to be 4.5 days (95% CI 3.9-5.2 days) for astrovirus, 1.2 days (95% CI 1.1-1.2 days) for norovirus genogroups I and II, 1.7 days (95% CI 1.5-1.8 days) for sapovirus, and 2.0 days (95% CI 1.4-2.4 days) for rotavirus.
Our estimates combine published data and provide sufficient quantitative detail to allow for these estimates to be used in a wide range of clinical and modeling applications. This can translate into improved prevention and control efforts in settings with transmission or the risk of transmission.
准确了解潜伏期对于调查和控制传染病及其传播至关重要,然而文献中关于潜伏期的表述往往缺乏引用、不一致且/或缺乏循证依据。
在对五种具有公共卫生重要性的肠道病毒的文献进行系统综述时,我们发现了256篇有潜伏期估计值的文章,其中33篇有可用于汇总分析的数据。
我们对汇总数据拟合了对数正态分布,发现星状病毒的中位潜伏期为4.5天(95%置信区间3.9 - 5.2天),I组和II组诺如病毒为1.2天(95%置信区间1.1 - 1.2天),札如病毒为1.7天(95%置信区间1.5 - 1.8天),轮状病毒为2.0天(95%置信区间1.4 - 2.4天)。
我们的估计整合了已发表的数据,并提供了足够的定量细节,以便这些估计值能用于广泛的临床和建模应用。这可以转化为在存在传播或传播风险的环境中加强预防和控制措施。