Am J Epidemiol. 2014 Jan 1;179(1):15-9. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwt224. Epub 2013 Sep 27.
The validity of methods for reconstructing historical rates of smoking prevalence has not been assessed before. Our objective was to assess their validity. We reconstructed smoking prevalence rates for each calendar year from 1940 to 2007 for men and women in Spain, using data on ages of smoking initiation and cessation available in the Spanish National Health Surveys of 2003-2004 and 2006-2007. To assess the validity of the reconstruction, we computed the differences between the reconstructed smoking prevalence and the contemporary observed smoking prevalence measured in the Spanish National Health Surveys of 1987, 1993, 1995, 1997, and 2001. We also compared reconstructed smoking prevalence trends with 35-year lagged lung cancer mortality rates in Spain as a proxy for the real prevalence trends. Reconstructed smoking prevalence rates compared with contemporary measured rates showed small differences in men (between -2.1% and 2.1%) and an overestimation in women (between 2.0% and 5.7%). Reconstructed smoking prevalence trends were significantly correlated with lagged lung cancer mortality trends (P = 0.004 for men, P < 0.0001 for women). The reconstruction of smoking prevalence rates through this methodology offers a feasible tool with which countries lacking previous smoking surveys can understand historical trends in their tobacco epidemic, which aids in designing and implementing adequate tobacco control interventions.
此前尚未评估过重建吸烟流行率历史数据的方法的有效性。我们的目的是评估这些方法的有效性。我们利用 2003-2004 年和 2006-2007 年西班牙国家健康调查中提供的吸烟起始和终止年龄数据，为西班牙的男性和女性重建了从 1940 年到 2007 年每年的吸烟流行率。为了评估重建的有效性，我们计算了重建的吸烟流行率与在西班牙国家健康调查中同期测量的吸烟流行率之间的差异，这些调查分别是 1987 年、1993 年、1995 年、1997 年和 2001 年。我们还将重建的吸烟流行率趋势与西班牙 35 年滞后的肺癌死亡率进行了比较，以作为真实流行趋势的替代指标。重建的吸烟流行率与同期测量的流行率相比，男性的差异较小（在-2.1%和 2.1%之间），而女性的差异较大（在 2.0%和 5.7%之间）。重建的吸烟流行率趋势与滞后的肺癌死亡率趋势显著相关（男性为 P = 0.004，女性为 P < 0.0001）。通过这种方法重建吸烟流行率提供了一个可行的工具，使缺乏以往吸烟调查的国家能够了解其烟草流行的历史趋势，这有助于设计和实施适当的烟草控制干预措施。
