Ngai Ka Ming, Lee Wing Yan, Madan Aditi, Sanyal Saswata, Roy Nobhojit, Burkle Frederick M, Hsu Edbert B
Department of Emergency Medicine, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York, USA; Department of Emergency Medicine, New York University School of Medicine, New York, New York, USA.
PLoS Curr. 2013 Sep 23;5:ecurrents.dis.ab7f298c89854015b74856232c70b62c. doi: 10.1371/currents.dis.ab7f298c89854015b74856232c70b62c.
Two separate but complementary epidemiologic surveillance methods for human stampedes have emerged since the publication of the topic in 2009. The objective of this study is to estimate the degree of underreporting in India.
The Ngai Search Method was compared to the Roy Search Method for human stampede events occurring in India between 2001 and 2010.
A total of 40 stampedes were identified by both search methods. Using the Ngai method, 34 human stampedes were identified. Using a previously defined stampede scale: 2 events were class I, 21 events were class II, 8 events were class III, and 3 events were class IV. The median deaths were 5.5 per event and median injuries were 13.5 per event. Using the Roy method, 27 events were identified, including 9 events that were not identified by the Ngai method. After excluding events based on exclusion criteria, six additional events identified by the Roy's method had a median of 4 deaths and 30 injuries. In multivariate analysis using the Ngai method, religious (6.52, 95%CI 1.73-24.66, p=0.006) and political (277.09, 95%CI 5.12-15,001.96, p=0.006) events had higher relative number of deaths.
Many causes accounting for the global increase in human stampede events can only be elucidated through systematic epidemiological investigation. Focusing on a country with a high recurrence of human stampedes, we compare two independent methods of data abstraction in an effort to improve the existing database and to identify pertinent risk factors. We concluded that our previous publication underestimated stampede events in India by approximately 18% and an international standardized database to systematically record occurrence of human stampedes is needed to facilitate understanding of the epidemiology of human stampedes.
自2009年该主题发表以来，出现了两种独立但互补的人类踩踏事件流行病学监测方法。本研究的目的是估计印度报告不足的程度。
将恩盖搜索法与罗伊搜索法用于比较2001年至2010年期间发生在印度的人类踩踏事件。
两种搜索方法共识别出40起踩踏事件。使用恩盖方法，识别出34起人类踩踏事件。使用先前定义的踩踏规模：2起事件为I级，21起事件为II级，8起事件为III级，3起事件为IV级。每次事件的死亡中位数为5.5人，受伤中位数为13.5人。使用罗伊方法，识别出27起事件，其中9起事件未被恩盖方法识别。根据排除标准排除事件后，罗伊方法识别出的另外6起事件的死亡中位数为4人，受伤30人。在使用恩盖方法的多变量分析中，宗教（6.52，95%CI 1.73 - 24.66，p = 0.006）和政治（277.09，95%CI 5.12 - 15,001.96，p = 0.006）事件的死亡相对人数较高。
许多导致全球人类踩踏事件增加的原因只能通过系统的流行病学调查来阐明。针对人类踩踏事件高发的国家，我们比较了两种独立的数据提取方法，以努力改进现有数据库并识别相关风险因素。我们得出结论，我们之前的出版物低估了印度的踩踏事件约18%，需要一个国际标准化数据库来系统记录人类踩踏事件的发生情况，以促进对人类踩踏事件流行病学的理解。
