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美国社区调查对入籍公民的统计有多准确?

How Well Does the American Community Survey Count Naturalized Citizens?

作者信息

Van Hook Jennifer, Bachmeier James D

机构信息

Population Research Institute, The Pennsylvania State University.

出版信息

Demogr Res. 2013 Jul 2;29(1):1-32. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.1.

DOI:10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.1
PMID:24078792
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3783022/
Abstract

BACKGROUND

Citizenship status among the foreign born is a crucial indicator of social and political incorporation, yet there are good reasons to suspect that citizenship status is inaccurately reported on U.S. surveys.

OBJECTIVE

This paper updates research carried out in the mid-1990s by Passel and Clark (1997) on the extent to which foreign-born non-citizen respondents in U.S. government-sponsored surveys misreport as naturalized citizens.

METHODS

We compare demographic estimates of the resident naturalized foreign-born population in 2010, based on administrative data, to estimates from the 2010 American Community Survey (ACS).

RESULTS

Similar to previous research, we find that misreporting in the ACS is especially high among immigrants from all countries/regions who report fewer than five years in the U.S. We also find that among longer-term foreign-born residents, misreporting is concentrated only among those originating in Mexico, especially men, a finding that diverges from Passel and Clark in that we find no evidence of over-reporting among immigrants from Central America and the Caribbean. Finally, the estimated magnitude of misreporting, especially among longer-term Mexican-born men, is sensitive to assumptions about the rate of emigration in our administrative-based demographic estimates, and assumptions about coverage error in the ACS, though altering these assumptions does not change the conclusions drawn from the general patterns of the results.

CONCLUSIONS

For applications that use citizenship as an indicator of legal status, we recommend that self-reported data on citizenship be accepted at face value for all groups except those with less than five years of U.S. residence and Mexican men.

摘要

背景

外国出生者的公民身份状况是社会和政治融入的关键指标,但有充分理由怀疑美国调查中公民身份状况的报告不准确。

目的

本文更新了帕塞尔和克拉克(1997年)在20世纪90年代中期进行的关于美国政府赞助调查中外国出生的非公民受访者误报为入籍公民的程度的研究。

方法

我们将基于行政数据得出的2010年外国出生的入籍常住人口的人口统计学估计与2010年美国社区调查(ACS)的估计进行比较。

结果

与先前的研究类似,我们发现,在美国居住年限少于五年的所有国家/地区的移民中,美国社区调查中的误报率特别高。我们还发现,在长期外国出生居民中,误报仅集中在那些来自墨西哥的居民中,尤其是男性,这一发现与帕塞尔和克拉克的研究不同,因为我们没有发现中美洲和加勒比地区移民过度报告的证据。最后,误报的估计幅度,尤其是长期墨西哥出生男性中的误报幅度,对我们基于行政的人口统计学估计中的移民率假设以及美国社区调查中的覆盖误差假设很敏感,尽管改变这些假设不会改变从结果的一般模式得出的结论。

结论

对于将公民身份用作法律地位指标的应用,我们建议除了在美国居住年限少于五年的群体和墨西哥男性外,所有群体的公民身份自我报告数据都应按其表面价值接受。

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本文引用的文献

1
Foreign-born emigration: a new approach and estimates based on matched CPS files.外国出生人口的移民情况:基于匹配的当前人口调查(CPS)文件的一种新方法及估计
Demography. 2006 May;43(2):361-82. doi: 10.1353/dem.2006.0013.
2
Coming to stay: an analysis of the U.S. census question on immigrants' year of arrival.留下来:对美国人口普查中关于移民抵达年份问题的分析。
Demography. 2004 Nov;41(4):721-38. doi: 10.1353/dem.2004.0035.
3
When immigrants are not migrants: counting arrivals of the foreign born using the U.S. census.当移民并非流动人口时:利用美国人口普查统计外国出生者的抵达情况。
Int Migr Rev. 1998 Spring;32(1):127-44.