Dean Danielle O, Bauer Daniel J, Shanahan Michael J
Department of Psychology, University of North Carolina.
Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina.
Psychol Methods. 2014 Jun;19(2):251-64. doi: 10.1037/a0034281. Epub 2013 Sep 30.
Traditional survival analysis was developed to investigate the occurrence and timing of a single event, but researchers have recently begun to ask questions about the order and timing of multiple events. A multiple event process survival mixture model is developed here to analyze nonrepeatable events measured in discrete-time that may occur at the same point in time. Building on both traditional univariate survival analysis and univariate survival mixture analysis, the model approximates the underlying multivariate distribution of hazard functions via a discrete-point finite mixture in which the mixing components represent prototypical patterns of event occurrence. The model is applied in an empirical analysis concerning transitions to adulthood, where the events under study include parenthood, marriage, beginning full-time work, and obtaining a college degree. Promising opportunities, as well as possible limitations of the model and future directions for research, are discussed.
传统生存分析旨在研究单一事件的发生及其时间，但研究人员最近开始探讨多个事件的顺序和时间问题。本文开发了一种多事件过程生存混合模型，用于分析在离散时间中测量的不可重复事件，这些事件可能在同一时间点发生。该模型基于传统单变量生存分析和单变量生存混合分析，通过离散点有限混合来近似风险函数的潜在多变量分布，其中混合成分代表事件发生的典型模式。该模型应用于一项关于向成年期过渡的实证分析，其中所研究的事件包括为人父母、结婚、开始全职工作和获得大学学位。本文讨论了该模型的前景、可能存在的局限性以及未来的研究方向。
