Noh Maengseok, Lee Youngjo, Chu Chaeshin, Gwack Jin, Youn Seung-Ki, Huh Sun
Department of Statistics, Pukyong National University, Busan, Korea .
Osong Public Health Res Perspect. 2013 Feb;4(1):39-44. doi: 10.1016/j.phrp.2013.01.002.
A hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM) was applied to estimate the transmission pattern of scrub typhus from 2001 to 2011 in the Republic of Korea, based on spatial and temporal correlation.
Based on the descriptive statistics of scrub typhus incidence from 2001 to 2011 reported to the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the spatial and temporal correlations were estimated by HGLM. Incidences according to age, sex, and year were also estimated by the best-fit model out of nine HGLMs. A disease map was drawn to view the annual regional spread of the disease.
The total number of scrub typhus cases reported from 2001 to 2011 was 51,136: male, 18,628 (36.4%); female, 32,508 (63.6%). The best-fit model selected was a combination of the spatial model (Markov random-field model) and temporal model (first order autoregressive model) of scrub typhus transmission. The peak incidence was 28.80 per 100,000 persons in early October and the peak incidence was 40.17 per 100,000 persons in those aged 63.3 years old by the best-fit HGLM. The disease map showed the spread of disease from the southern central area to a nationwide area, excepting Gangwon-do (province), Gyeongsangbuk-do (province), and Seoul.
In the transmission of scrub typhus in Korea, there was a correlation to the incidence of adjacent areas, as well as that of the previous year. According to the disease map, we are unlikely to see any decrease in the incidence in the near future, unless ongoing aggressive measures to prevent the exposure to the vector, chigger mites, in rural areas, are put into place.
应用分层广义线性模型（HGLM），基于空间和时间相关性，估计2001年至2011年韩国恙虫病的传播模式。
根据向韩国疾病控制与预防中心报告的2001年至2011年恙虫病发病率的描述性统计数据，通过HGLM估计空间和时间相关性。还通过九个HGLM中的最佳拟合模型估计了按年龄、性别和年份划分的发病率。绘制了疾病地图以观察该病的年度区域传播情况。
2001年至2011年报告的恙虫病病例总数为51136例：男性18628例（36.4%）；女性32508例（63.6%）。所选的最佳拟合模型是恙虫病传播的空间模型（马尔可夫随机场模型）和时间模型（一阶自回归模型）的组合。根据最佳拟合HGLM，10月初的发病率峰值为每10万人28.80例，63.3岁人群的发病率峰值为每10万人40.17例。疾病地图显示疾病从韩国中部南部地区蔓延至全国除江原道、庆尚北道和首尔以外的地区。
在韩国恙虫病的传播中，与相邻地区以及上一年的发病率存在相关性。根据疾病地图，除非在农村地区采取持续积极的措施防止接触传播媒介恙螨，否则近期发病率不太可能下降。
