Center for Urban Affairs and Policy Research, Northwestern University, 2040 Sheridan Road, 60201, Evanston, Illinois, USA.
Environ Monit Assess. 1987 May;8(3):217-38. doi: 10.1007/BF00404266.
A post-project audit was conducted of 239 impacts forecast in an representative cross-section of 29 U.S. environmental impact statements. Results must be qualified because of the imprecision of EIS forecasts and the quality of data available to a retrospective evaluator. Relatively few forecasts were found to be inaccurate and even fewer unanticipated impacts were identified. However, only 30% of the impacts were unqualifiedly close to their forecasts, with almost as many rated accurate principally by virtue of the vagueness of the forecasts.
对 29 份美国环境影响报告中具有代表性的横剖面上的 239 项影响预测进行了项目后审计。由于 EIS 预测的不准确性和回溯评估者可用数据的质量，结果必须加以限定。发现只有相对较少的预测不准确，更没有发现意外影响。但是，只有 30%的影响与预测结果完全吻合，几乎同样多的影响被认为是准确的，主要是因为预测的模糊性。
