Department of Psychology, Box 351525, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
J Exp Psychol Appl. 2012 Mar;18(1):126-40. doi: 10.1037/a0025185. Epub 2011 Aug 29.
Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather warning system is used. The work reported here tested the relative benefits of several forecast formats, comparing decisions made with and without uncertainty forecasts. In three experiments, participants assumed the role of a manager of a road maintenance company in charge of deciding whether to pay to salt the roads and avoid a potential penalty associated with icy conditions. Participants used overnight low temperature forecasts accompanied in some conditions by uncertainty estimates and in others by decision advice comparable to categorical warnings. Results suggested that uncertainty information improved decision quality overall and increased trust in the forecast. Participants with uncertainty forecasts took appropriate precautionary action and withheld unnecessary action more often than did participants using deterministic forecasts. When error in the forecast increased, participants with conventional forecasts were reluctant to act. However, this effect was attenuated by uncertainty forecasts. Providing categorical decision advice alone did not improve decisions. However, combining decision advice with uncertainty estimates resulted in the best performance overall. The results reported here have important implications for the development of forecast formats to increase compliance with severe weather warnings as well as other domains in which one must act in the face of uncertainty.
尽管天气预报中存在不确定性，但由于担心公众会误解，明确的数值不确定性估计值很少包含在公共天气预报中。特别令人关注的是，在低概率情况下需要采取预防措施的情况，这种情况通常发生在严重事件中。目前，使用的是分类天气预警系统。这里报告的工作测试了几种预测格式的相对优势，比较了有和没有不确定性预测的决策。在三个实验中，参与者扮演道路维护公司经理的角色，负责决定是否支付撒盐费用以避免与结冰条件相关的潜在罚款。参与者使用夜间低温预测，在某些情况下伴有不确定性估计，在其他情况下则提供与分类警告相当的决策建议。结果表明，不确定性信息总体上提高了决策质量，并增加了对预报的信任。与使用确定性预报的参与者相比，有不确定性预报的参与者更经常采取适当的预防措施并避免不必要的行动。当预报错误增加时，使用传统预报的参与者不愿意采取行动。然而，不确定性预报减轻了这种影响。单独提供分类决策建议并没有改善决策。但是，将决策建议与不确定性估计相结合可以取得整体最佳效果。这里报告的结果对开发预测格式以提高对恶劣天气预警的遵守程度以及其他必须在不确定情况下采取行动的领域具有重要意义。
