Yang Kun, Sun Le-Ping, Liang You-Sheng, Wu Feng, Li Wei, Zhang Jian-Feng, Huang Yi-Xin, Hang De-Rong, Liang Song, Bergquist Robert, Zhou Xiao-Nong
Geospat Health. 2013 Nov;8(1):133-42. doi: 10.4081/gh.2013.61.
The risk for Schistosoma japonicum infection in Jiangsu province, People's Republic of China, was investigated by a mouse bioassay. Various investigations were conducted in the period 2009-2011 with the presentation here representing the summary of the results from 45-50 sites in the marshlands along the Yangtze River's course through the province. Indices representing three aspects of the infection were collected to assess risk: (i) the proportion of sentinel points where at least one mouse infection was recorded; (ii) the proportion of infected mice at each of these sites; and (iii) the average worm burdens. Directional distribution analysis and scan statistics were used to explore the spatio-temporal risk pattern. The spatial distribution was oriented along the Yangtze River and the directional distributions for the proportion of infected mice and mean worm burdens were similar for the positive sentinel sites. Four statistically significant clusters were detected in 2009, but only one in 2010 and 2011, respectively. Temporal windows for infection risk were seen in June and September. The study illustrates the utility of spatio-temporal analysis in assessing the risk for schistosomiasis. This approach should be useful with respect to surveillance and response that can be expected to be increasingly applied when moving from morbidity control to transmission control.
通过小鼠生物测定法对中华人民共和国江苏省日本血吸虫感染风险进行了调查。在2009年至2011年期间开展了各项调查，本文展示的是长江流经该省的沼泽地45 - 50个地点的结果总结。收集了代表感染三个方面的指标以评估风险：(i) 至少记录到一只小鼠感染的哨兵点比例；(ii) 这些地点中每个地点感染小鼠的比例；以及(iii) 平均虫负荷。使用方向分布分析和扫描统计来探索时空风险模式。空间分布沿长江方向，阳性哨兵点感染小鼠比例和平均虫负荷的方向分布相似。2００９年检测到四个具有统计学意义的聚集区，但2010年和2011年分别仅检测到一个。感染风险的时间窗口出现在6月和9月。该研究说明了时空分析在评估血吸虫病风险中的作用。当从发病率控制转向传播控制时，预计这种方法在监测和应对方面将越来越有用。
