Mărgăritescu Irina, Wilrich Peter-Th
Freie Universität Berlin, Institut für Statistik und Okonometrie, Garystrasse 21, 14195 Berlin, Germany.
J AOAC Int. 2013 Sep-Oct;96(5):1086-91. doi: 10.5740/jaoacint.12-377.
Performance of qualitative microbiological measurement methods where the results are either "O" (microorganism not detected) or "1" (microorganism detected) is described by their probability of detection (POD) function, i.e., the POD as a function of the level of contamination of the sample, expressed as CFU/g or CFU/mL, or by the level of detection (LODp), i.e., the contamination of the sample that is detected (measurement result "1") with a specified probability p. When it is impossible to obtain samples of known contamination, estimation of the POD and LOD is impossible. However, it may not be the LOD of the method that is of interest, but its LOD with respect to the LOD of a reference method. Hence, an intralaboratory experiment is performed with a reference method, R, and an alternative method, A, at different levels of unknown contamination. A complementary loglog model is used to statistically estimate the relative LOD (RLOD) of A with respect to R that is equal for all chosen values p of the POD. An intralaboratory experiment for the detection of Listeria monocytogenes in fish and eggs illustrates the method. In a simulation study, the bias of the estimate of the RLOD was investigated. This bias is due to the small number of repeated measurements in intralaboratory studies; the relative bias increases with increasing true values of the RLOD from 0 for true RLOD = 1 to about 20% for true RLOD = 3. If the number of CFUs in the test portions does not follow a Poisson distribution, but instead follows a negative binomial distribution, e.g., because of overdispersion, the bias of the estimate of the RLOD decreases. An EXCEL program RLOD_ver1. xlsm for this method of statistical analysis can be downloaded from http://www.wiwiss.fu-berlin.de/ instituteliso/mitarbeiterlwilrichlindex.html.
定性微生物测量方法的性能,其结果为“0”(未检测到微生物)或“1”(检测到微生物),由其检测概率(POD)函数来描述,即POD作为样品污染水平的函数,以CFU/g或CFU/mL表示,或者由检测限(LODp)来描述,即具有指定概率p时检测到的样品污染(测量结果“1”)。当无法获得已知污染的样品时,就无法估计POD和LOD。然而,可能感兴趣的不是该方法的LOD,而是其相对于参考方法LOD的LOD。因此,在不同未知污染水平下,使用参考方法R和替代方法A进行实验室内部实验。使用互补对数-对数模型对A相对于R的相对LOD(RLOD)进行统计估计,该相对LOD对于所有选定的POD值p都是相等的。一项用于检测鱼类和蛋类中单核细胞增生李斯特菌的实验室内部实验说明了该方法。在一项模拟研究中,研究了RLOD估计值的偏差。这种偏差是由于实验室内部研究中重复测量次数较少;相对偏差随着RLOD真实值的增加而增加,从真实RLOD = 1时的0增加到真实RLOD = 3时的约20%。如果测试部分中的CFU数量不遵循泊松分布,而是遵循负二项分布,例如由于过度离散,则RLOD估计值的偏差会减小。可从http://www.wiwiss.fu-berlin.de/ instituteliso/mitarbeiterlwilrichlindex.html下载用于此统计分析方法的EXCEL程序RLOD_ver1. xlsm。