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在气候变化背景下管理受威胁和濒危物种的结构决策。

Structuring decisions for managing threatened and endangered species in a changing climate.

机构信息

Decision Research, Galiano Island, 1160 Devina Drive, BC, V0N 1P0, Canada.

出版信息

Conserv Biol. 2013 Dec;27(6):1212-21. doi: 10.1111/cobi.12165.

Abstract

The management of endangered species under climate change is a challenging and often controversial task that incorporates input from a variety of different environmental, economic, social, and political interests. Yet many listing and recovery decisions for endangered species unfold on an ad hoc basis without reference to decision-aiding approaches that can improve the quality of management choices. Unlike many treatments of this issue, which consider endangered species management a science-based problem, we suggest that a clear decision-making process is equally necessary. In the face of new threats due to climate change, managers' choices about endangered species require closely linked analyses and deliberations that identify key objectives and develop measurable attributes, generate and compare management alternatives, estimate expected consequences and key sources of uncertainty, and clarify trade-offs across different dimensions of value. Several recent cases of endangered species conservation decisions illustrate our proposed decision-focused approach, including Gulf of Maine Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) recovery framework development, Cultus Lake sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) management, and Upper Columbia River white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) recovery planning. Estructuración de Decisiones para Manejar Especies Amenazadas y en Peligro en un Clima Cambiante.

摘要

气候变化下濒危物种管理是一项具有挑战性且常常存在争议的任务,需要综合考虑来自不同环境、经济、社会和政治利益相关方的意见。然而,许多濒危物种的列入和恢复决策都是临时做出的,并没有参考可以提高管理决策质量的决策辅助方法。与许多针对这一问题的处理方法不同,这些方法将濒危物种管理视为一个基于科学的问题,我们认为,一个明确的决策过程同样是必要的。面对气候变化带来的新威胁,管理者需要对濒危物种做出选择,这需要进行紧密联系的分析和审议,以确定关键目标和制定可衡量的属性,生成和比较管理方案,估计预期后果和关键不确定性来源,并明确不同价值维度之间的权衡取舍。濒危物种保护决策的最近几个案例说明了我们所提出的决策为中心的方法,包括缅因湾大西洋鲑(Salmo salar)恢复框架的制定、库特湖红大麻哈鱼(Oncorhynchus nerka)的管理,以及哥伦比亚河上游白鲟(Acipenser transmontanus)的恢复规划。

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