National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, 2725 Montlake Boulevard, East, Seattle, WA, 98112, U.S.A..
Conserv Biol. 2013 Dec;27(6):1222-33. doi: 10.1111/cobi.12166.
Aquatic species are threatened by climate change but have received comparatively less attention than terrestrial species. We gleaned key strategies for scientists and managers seeking to address climate change in aquatic conservation planning from the literature and existing knowledge. We address 3 categories of conservation effort that rely on scientific analysis and have particular application under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA): assessment of overall risk to a species; long-term recovery planning; and evaluation of effects of specific actions or perturbations. Fewer data are available for aquatic species to support these analyses, and climate effects on aquatic systems are poorly characterized. Thus, we recommend scientists conducting analyses supporting ESA decisions develop a conceptual model that links climate, habitat, ecosystem, and species response to changing conditions and use this model to organize analyses and future research. We recommend that current climate conditions are not appropriate for projections used in ESA analyses and that long-term projections of climate-change effects provide temporal context as a species-wide assessment provides spatial context. In these projections, climate change should not be discounted solely because the magnitude of projected change at a particular time is uncertain when directionality of climate change is clear. Identifying likely future habitat at the species scale will indicate key refuges and potential range shifts. However, the risks and benefits associated with errors in modeling future habitat are not equivalent. The ESA offers mechanisms for increasing the overall resilience and resistance of species to climate changes, including establishing recovery goals requiring increased genetic and phenotypic diversity, specifying critical habitat in areas not currently occupied but likely to become important, and using adaptive management. Incorporación de las Ciencias Climáticas en las Aplicaciones del Acta Estadunidense de Especies en Peligro para Especies Acuáticas.
受气候变化威胁的水生物种受到的关注比陆生物种少。我们从文献和现有知识中收集了寻求在水生保护规划中应对气候变化的科学家和管理者的关键策略。我们解决了 3 类依赖科学分析的保护工作，这些工作在美国濒危物种法案 (ESA) 下具有特殊应用：评估物种的总体风险；长期恢复规划；以及评估具体行动或干扰的影响。水生物种的数据较少，无法支持这些分析，而且气候对水生系统的影响还没有得到很好的描述。因此，我们建议进行支持 ESA 决策分析的科学家制定一个概念模型，该模型将气候、栖息地、生态系统和物种对变化条件的响应联系起来，并利用该模型组织分析和未来的研究。我们建议不要将当前的气候条件用于 ESA 分析中使用的预测，并且气候变化影响的长期预测提供时间背景，因为物种范围评估提供空间背景。在这些预测中，不应仅仅因为在特定时间气候变化的预期变化幅度不确定，而忽略气候变化的方向。在物种范围内确定未来可能的栖息地将指示关键避难所和潜在的范围转移。然而，模型化未来栖息地的错误相关的风险和收益并不相等。ESA 提供了一些机制来提高物种对气候变化的整体弹性和抵抗力，包括建立要求增加遗传和表型多样性的恢复目标，指定当前未占据但可能变得重要的关键栖息地，并使用适应性管理。
